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New York Third District Poll: Democrats with Edge to Pick up Congressional Seat
Emerson College Polling ^ | January 18, 2024

Posted on 01/18/2024 6:23:51 PM PST by PermaRag

A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey of New York voters in the Third Congressional District finds that 45% of voters support Democrat Tom Suozzi, 42% support Republican Mazi Pilip, and 5% plan to vote for someone else. Nine percent are undecided ahead of the February special election to replace George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December.

(Excerpt) Read more at emersoncollegepolling.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: congress; election; newyork; santos
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Emerson published a boatload of polls today, most of which will be hand-waved because they don't tell us what we want to hear. In the case of the House seat the GOP is about to lose in New York, the poll appears to be a just "registered voters" which means even more readers will cover their eyes and refuse to look. Even at the part which deals with LIKELY voters (bad news there too).

Their Texas polls have Trump under 50% but still leading by 8 or 10 points; and Ted Cruz -- absolutely NOT safe this time around -- is only up by 2 against ultra-liberal ghetto congressman Colin Allred, who faked to the center earlier this week by voting with the GOP on a border-related resolution that was just for show.

Their one bit of good news is that Steve Garvey has "surged" into second place in the CA Senate open primary. It will be nice to have a Republican make it to the general election there, even if he is destined to lose by 25 points or so. This is the first poll I've seen which suggests that the CA election won't be between 2 Democrats, as so often happens these days.

1 posted on 01/18/2024 6:23:51 PM PST by PermaRag
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To: PermaRag

Cruz is not loosing to a liberal in Texas, no need to be clutching pearls over those polls.

Seats will be one or lost, can’t help it. Just stop buying into agenda driven polls, they may be c,ose sometimes but for the most part they are supposed to discourage you and create a false narrative.


2 posted on 01/18/2024 6:28:19 PM PST by Skwor
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To: PermaRag

Easy pickup in New York for the Dems. The elections will be tough for us this year, because of abortion.


3 posted on 01/18/2024 6:29:37 PM PST by nwrep
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To: nwrep

I’m not sure it’s all about abortion, except of course when the Democrats get something specifically on the ballot to drive turnout in their direction.

Frankly I’m surprised that the NY-3 race is as close as the poll suggests. The GOP candidate is apparently a decent one, and Suozzi probably inspires about as much enthusiasm as Biden does. Instead of an 85% chance of losing this seat, maybe the probability is down to more like 65%? There’s still almost a month to go.

But the voters on Long Island are supposed to be ashamed of their earlier vote for Santos and must cleans their consciences by voting Democrat this time around (and in November). We’ll see if they do.


4 posted on 01/18/2024 6:34:25 PM PST by PermaRag (Joo Biden is not my President)
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To: PermaRag
But the voters on Long Island are supposed to be ashamed of their earlier vote for Santos and must cleans their consciences by voting Democrat this time around (and in November). We’ll see if they do.

You're right. There's no chance for the Republican this time.

5 posted on 01/18/2024 6:38:43 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: PermaRag

The poll shows a well known former Democrat incumbent with only a 3% lead over someone who would be less known. I don’t think the Democrat has an edge.


6 posted on 01/18/2024 6:39:53 PM PST by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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To: PermaRag

The poll shows a well known former Democrat incumbent with only a 3% lead over someone who would be less known. I don’t think the Democrat has an edge.


7 posted on 01/18/2024 6:40:56 PM PST by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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To: MinorityRepublican
You're right. There's no chance for the Republican this time.

You think you know NY CD3?

Santos won by 8 points the last time.

People here(I live here) hate Biden and the Democrats even more than they did when they voted for Santos in 2022.

8 posted on 01/18/2024 6:44:48 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: PermaRag

Seven posts in and on one’s addressed the elephant in the room. This is 100% the “stupid party’s” fault. Santos is a sleazeball, but he was our sleazeball. LOL. He never should have been expelled until he was convicted.


9 posted on 01/18/2024 6:47:52 PM PST by sunny bonobo
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To: amnestynone

If he doesn’t have an edge then the Republican must. And that doesn’t make sense at this point.

OTOH, I’m not sure why Suozzi left Congress to make a run at Governor which everyone knew was totally futile. It suggests that he didn’t really want to be in Washington anymore and he was probably dragged into this special election by the Party — he was NOT a candidate before Santos was booted, or at least he hadn’t filed any FEC reports while numerous other Democrats had. And those reports show that they’ve got a ton of money; Suozzi may not.

If that’s all true then he’s not even a viable candidate for November, and is just a placeholder until then. But he’s a placeholder who is still likely to win, which was the whole point of the Democrats using him here.


10 posted on 01/18/2024 6:48:16 PM PST by PermaRag (Joo Biden is not my President)
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To: nwrep

The Democrats have mountains of cash and a very effective marketing campaign to convince voters that partial-birth abortion is the family values vote - getting an electorate opposed to late term abortion to show up and vote in favor of it. Meanwhile, opposing groups have a fraction of the resources to counter this marketing campaign as the base sits around twiddling their thumbs and closing their wallets.


11 posted on 01/18/2024 6:49:11 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: sunny bonobo
Santos is a sleazeball, but he was our sleazeball.

I agree. I'll vote to expel him after we expel Senator Menendez first. I'm waiting. Stupid moves like this is why the GOP is the stupid party.

12 posted on 01/18/2024 6:50:53 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: amnestynone

It would be nice if the talk radio circuit and other conservative media would make this their pet project like they have in years past - all hands on deck, let’s win this thing. Instead crickets on this and a host of other elections in recent years, while the Dems are energized and working their tails off and forking over the cash.


13 posted on 01/18/2024 6:51:29 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: FreeReign

“People here(I live here) hate Biden and the Democrats even more than they did when they voted for Santos in 2022.”

You are right — look at the polling details. Biden is hideously unpopular in NY3 and Hochul is even worse. People wouldn’t cross the street to spit on her if she were on fire. Well, actually that might be fun to see.

However, the one person who is way more unpopular than both of those is Santos. This election is meant to be a referendum on him. Period.

Will a majority of the voters (however slight) let this election be what the Democrats and media want it to be? Hopefully not, but probably so.


14 posted on 01/18/2024 6:51:36 PM PST by PermaRag (Joo Biden is not my President)
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To: amnestynone

Yep


15 posted on 01/18/2024 6:53:30 PM PST by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA! DEATH TO MARXISM AND LEFTISM! AMERICA, COWBOY UP!)
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To: amnestynone

Suozzi is flooding the TV and radio with ads. He’s more well known. He should have a bigger margin.


16 posted on 01/18/2024 6:55:20 PM PST by CaptainK ("If life's really hard, at least its short")
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To: PermaRag

A damn shame in NY. The RNC is doing nothing to help the GOP candidate. TV adds supporting Suozzi are everywhere while nothing for the Ethiopian Jewish lady who formally was an Israeli soldier.


17 posted on 01/18/2024 6:57:26 PM PST by kenmcg (ti hi o)
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To: Republican Wildcat
Meanwhile, opposing groups have a fraction of the resources to counter this marketing campaign as the base sits around twiddling their thumbs and closing their wallets.

Got a mailer today from the Congressional Leadership fund today.

"It says don't vote for the Hochul puppet Suozzi". "He's for higher taxes and open borders".

18 posted on 01/18/2024 6:58:28 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: kenmcg

The RNC is broke.


19 posted on 01/18/2024 7:00:02 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: PermaRag

Way to go, stupid Congressional Republicans.


20 posted on 01/18/2024 7:00:37 PM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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