If you can’t even carry your own state then you’re not a contender.
True. Nominations may show trends and the eventual elections rub it in. Not always, though.
In 1964 Goldwater won his home state Arizona and 5 other states to lose to LBJ 486 to 52.
In 1972 McGovern didn’t win his home state of South Dakota but won Massachusetts to get 17 electoral votes to Nixon’s 520.
In 1984 vs. Reagan, Mondale won his own state of Minnesota by 0.18% and won DC. Reagan won with 525 electoral votes.
The damn fool got too ambitious too early and probably at the wife’s urging.