Posted on 11/27/2023 6:04:43 AM PST by FarCenter
Over this time period, college graduates in the workforce increased from low single-digit percentages to 25%. With the working-age population peaking in 2011, upgrading the labor force has become a necessity.
Happily, the investments have been made, and, barring a sudden collapse of the education system, China’s blue-collar workforce will transition to a white-collar one as retiring migrant workers are replaced by their college-educated children. College graduates in China’s workforce should exceed 70% by 2050.
Of note, over 40% of China’s college graduates are STEM majors. This compares to 18% in the US, 35% in Germany, and 26% in the OECD. Given the rapid increase in graduates, these STEM majors have taken China from a standing start to topping science and technology metrics like the Nature Index, the top 1% of cited papers, the top 10% of cited papers and WIPO PCT patents in recent years.
In real-world terms, China’s technically proficient workforce has given it the industrial output of the US and EU combined. Dozens of electric vehicle (EV) companies have emerged from nowhere with product cycles half as long as established car companies.
China has cornered the market on batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. China’s National Space Administration and defense industry have made significant technological leaps with their legions of fresh-faced engineers.
This trend should have another 20 years to run, at which point China’s workforce will have more STEM grads than the rest of the world combined. All of this is more or less written in stone until 2043. The college grads and STEM majors China’s needs by then have already been born.
And then what?
China, like most Western nations, will discover that pipes still need plunging, homes need repair and factories need workers.
China already imports labor for "unpleasant" jobs. What will happen when 70% of their labor force is a college grad? What about the children born between now and 2043?
Also, please note that while most Chinese college grads are very proficient at their subject, the entire political system in China ensures that favored children will always graduate with honors.
So, much like the West, they will discover that the rot of civilization starts on the inside, as favored children expect that they will always be more important than mere citizens.
Not if we get them infected with our dysphoria and illogic, they will grind to a halt and collapse like us and by then we will have the wheel and toilet and maybe even electricity reinvented and invade them like Vikings, Arrrrr!
“Of note, over 40% of China’s college graduates are STEM majors. “
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who slavishly follow Party approved texts. Innovation frowned on as it could conflict with Party values.
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“This compares to 18% in the US, 35% in Germany, and 26% in the OECD.”
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who do not slavishly follow CCP approved texts. Innovation encouraged.
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