Do not worry.
Big Daddy will take care of you.
Posted on 11/14/2023 1:07:37 AM PST by EBH
See my links. We’re exporting record amounts of everything.
Your speculation is alarming but the concept needs to be out there and considered. Just as much as if a leader has 10 advisors and all believe the same idea about a situation or threat. That the 10th advisor must take the opposite approach to that problem and develop what ifs and solutions in case the other 9 are incorrect. Such a real-life approach MAY have prevented the Oct 7 massacre of Israelis, IMHO.
It looks as if oil exports are going in part to Europe, to offset the loss of Russian oil. It has shot up during the Biden Administration, with a slight dip in the peak of the COVID recession. It appears there are realists in the Biden Administration who offset the crazies. You cannot fight a proxy war with Russia without substituting oil and natural gas to the NATO members to make up for the loss of Russian products. Similarly, and probably due to Jewish influence in the Democratic Party, America provided a huge naval force to deter outside parties like Turkey and Iran to get involved in the Israel-Hamas fight. The realists won this battle vs. the crazies who want Israel to cave.
Drill, drill, drill, feed em, and then?
When Trump comes in, we cut them off and go back to two dollar gas while supplying our allies.
You need a few lessons on subjugation and economic warfare.
Where have you been?
We’re no longer a republic.
We’re living that lesson.
And Deep State has allies.
America does not.
I didn’t say neighboring countries “exist to” ship oil to the US. I said they did. They do. So that is a factual statement. They could ship more and no doubt will after President Trump gets back and office and orders construction of Keystone XL to be back on. So yes, America gets a substantial portion of its needs met by its neighbors.
America also exports far more coal than it consumes.
America has been a net exporter of natural gas since 2016.
and production of all 3 could be considerably higher than it is if the federal government adopted policies friendly to production of all 3.
Unlike from the 70s until a few years ago, America is not dependent on middle eastern oil.
It is imported to export.
The world of oil is intentionally obfuscated.
For example, there is a parameter called Refinery Gain.
You send a barrel of oil to a refinery and the output refined products (of lower density/viscosity) exists at a volume greater than 1 barrel (42 gallons by definition).
So you produce 1 barrel in the Gulf of Mexico, you refine it, the refinery output is, say, 1.1 barrels of petroleum products. The US declares this extra 0.1 number added for quoting crude production. Clearly bogus, but wait, there’s more. Oil imported from elsewhere and refined has that same Refinery Gain number added to quoted US crude production.
0.1 is not the right number. It varies but most recently 6.3%.
Never ever forget when one reads celebration about oil exports that the US imports even more, and more than is sent back to the source.
Go get the World Statistical Report from BP.com. It is the most important spreadsheet you will ever see.
Do not worry.
Big Daddy will take care of you.
> People want to declare someone’s policies did this. Geology doesn’t care about policy.<
A policy that restricts the ability to extract the oil and natural gas most certainly affects the amount produced.
I could give you a refrigerator full of food but if I only let you open it for 2 seconds per day, you would starve.
EC
Same old same old! Exporting record amounts while we pay excessive amounts to drive and keep warm
Biteme dipping his wick into the Strategic Oil Supply?
They better all check the batteries in their comms radios charging on the bridge. The tanker S-TRUST just had a $3 million fire on the bridge caused by an exploding radio battery.
IIRC, there was an article here at FR some time back that said the fracked production from the Permian Basin in Texas could supply the entire US need.
A quick glance at a map of frackable oil/gas shale plays is instructional...there are still huge amounts of "fossil fuel" still in the ground.
Former Freeper Thackney schooled ME on the petroleum industry years ago. Regarding the sulfur content of various crude and the ability of some refineries to break down that type of crude.
So, the reason that we may be EXPORTING crude is that there is a surplus of light sweet crude coming from TX. More than there may be storage for at the refineries within competitive TRUCKING distance from TX. Therefore, the light sweet crude gets exported to Europe to refineries that want that low sulfur content oil.
Conversely, refineries in LA/TX are the best in the world at breaking down HIGH sulfur crude. Like the kind that comes out of Venezuela, Alberta, Iran and other sources. So, they may IMPORT this type of crude oil potentially sold at a DISCOUNT to the price of the oil coming out of TX.
When the SHALE oil revolution of horizontal/directional drilling happened the majority of that oil out of the Permian Basin and ND was light sweet crude. So, that increase in production of that low sulfur oil had a bigger impact on the price of Nigerian oil exports than it did Iran/Venezuela exports. This is because Nigerian oil is also light sweet crude.
Petroleum is a fungible commodity. People need to keep in mind the ONLY reason that the European refineries are buying more US sourced oil is because it is CHEAPER DELIVERED to their refinery than EVERY other source of the same commodity in the world.
This is the same reason why India is purchasing so much Russian crude. They are/were buying it at a $30/barrel discount to the Brent Sea Crude Spot price. Literally making then millions of profit per day.
Obviously, you Owen already know this based on your career experience. I am pointing these things out to people without petroleum commodity experience.
If you live in the Permian Basin it’s pretty easy to see where it’s coming from. Horizonal drilling and multi stage fracing has been a game changer. Where one horizonal well can produce what used to take 30 vertical wells. I haven’t seen a vertical well going in for about 5 years now. One of the high Peak btry’s just south of the ranch is hauling off 14 loads a day. I produce that in about a month, with 69 vertical wells. My btrys have 2-500 barrel tanks per btry, they have 8-2000’s.It’s a whole new world and they’ve left the old dinosaurs like me and others behind. Hell I turn 74 in just a few months. .
If we don’t produce an equal amount of oil to what goes on the ships then the price of US oil, hence gas will go up. Only way this is good news is if Biden has got off the necks of the oil companies and allowing more production and drilling. Other than that you will be paying more at the pump shortly. Just in time for winter oil heating and Christmas travel season.
US consumption of ALL liquid petroleum products is running something over 20 mbpd. (20.28 mbpd in 2022, per EIA.) Not crude, ALL.
That included: approx. 1.17 mbpd of biofuels, ~2.2mbpd of HGLs (mainly propane), and 1.72 mbpd exported ‘refined products & “other” ‘. (per EIA)
Per EIA, in 2022, the US imported about 6.28 mbpd of crude oil and exported about 3.58 mbpd plus that 1.72 mbpd exported refined products & “other”.
That puts our crude “shortfall” at ~1 mbpd, not 6-7 mbpd, before(!) accounting for projected production of 12.9 mbpd of crude for 2023. (I can’t find any solid numbers for estimated US consumption for 2023 — most recent sources seem to be sticking with a slight decrease over 2022, no number given, so I’ll stick with the 2022 data for 2023 until better data is turned up.) LPG exports are considerably up, the final numbers for 2023 should be quite good. Refined product exports should be up in 2023 also, but, again, I’ve not found a firm prediction from a trustworthy source.
Now, going back to all liquid petroleum products, EIA clearly states that for 2022, the United States produced about 20.08 million b/d of petroleum and consumed about 20.01 million b/d.
If one considers all energy imports and exports (which is done in “Quads”, as in quadrillion Btu, and is actually quite straightforward), the US had a net export vs. import balance of +5.94 Quads in 2022. Again, this is easily found on the EIA website.
Granted that considerable crude oil imports are due to blending considerations (we ARE “dependent” in that sense), and we likely want to keep exporting that nearly 2 mbpd of refined products and “other” — it doesn’t make a lot of sense for extra empty tankers to be showing up here. Unless... the shippers think something big is expected to happen in the ME? Or have some of these ships been converted to LNG carriers?
All data I have presented is on the EIA website.
Goodbye.
Ah, please see my post above. I only briefly referenced the sweet / sour / light / heavy aspect of the industry, but, yes, you are correct. Mostly I was straightening out some misleading statements regarding volumes.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.