Posted on 10/30/2023 5:32:58 AM PDT by MtnClimber
The tragedy is that realist deterrence is moral, while naïve appeasement is immoral.
Classical diplomacy warns leaders to be neither obsequious and appeasing abroad, nor gratuitously boastful and hard-headed.
The usual advice is don’t-tread-on-me resoluteness, or what Teddy Roosevelt characterized as “speak softly and carry a big stick.” The alternatives – whether “speak loudly and carry a twig,” “speak softly and carry a twig,” or “speak loudly and carry a big stick”- are far worse.
Our current diplomats have unfortunately forgotten that golden mean of guarded language backed with credible warnings of overwhelming force. And the result is a verbal mess, backed by impending attacks called off, confusion, and harsh rhetoric rather than quiet retribution.
Biden and his team give us endless variations on the same loud threat to Iran along the following lines: “If outside actors are considering widening the war, DON’T!” They accompany this by reacting only four times to 83 documented acts of Iranian aggression directed at U.S. forces, by greenlighting a $6 billion ransom to Iran and by lifting sanctions, resulting in a $50 billion Iranian oil windfall.
As a general rule, the more one side appeases the other, or is humiliated, or is shown to be weak or naïve, the more likely it is that the tentative party will vainly seek to restore lost deterrence by ever-tougher language—even though it must know that these ever-increasing verbal threats are becoming increasingly empty. Threats and taunts are like inflation: the more they are issued without reliable backing, the more worthless they become.
The murdered dead were not even buried in Israel, when the Biden State Department’s Palestinian Affairs bureau issued a call for a ceasefire—a plea followed by a similar one in a joint communiqué from Turkey’s Recep Erdogan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
(Excerpt) Read more at amgreatness.com ...
And he doesn't want his streak to end.
VDH ping
When do consistent policies, advantageous to one side, become evidence of intent, rather than bungling?
Biden’s “Don’t” mantra is stupid and annoying. Don’t what?
In contrast, if Israel crushes Hamas, the world will not like Israel, but it will caution prudence to anti-Semitic killers, lest they incite a righteous Israeli retribution. And they may well secretly hope that Israel deals with the murderers who deserve their fate. The more Israel hesitates, the more the EU crowd and the “moderate” Arab regimes will damn Israel: “Doesn’t Jerusalem’s hesitation reveal its guilt or fear?”
FR Index of his articles: Victor Davis Hanson on FR
Town Hall: Victor Davis Hanson on Town Hall
American Greatness: Victor Davis Hanson on American Greatness
His website: Victor Davis Hanson
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Ah I do miss the days of diplomacy before Obama and Hillary. We were respected. Once the LGBT agenda was pushed, we became leppers. Retiring and returning to the States after 12 years abroad, I didn’t recognize my own Country in 2012.
My thought is this: Israel is going to painted as the bad guy, the Palestinians as the victims. Upside down. I say that Israel should just go all our and destroy Hamas and Hezbollah. If Gaza gets reduced to rubble, then so be it.
The Israelis are the victims, Damn the antisemitism and just do it.
Let the mullahs in Iran mull that over.
I like VDH as a scholar but not as a commentator/podcaster. A whole hour of whining political opinions. While his expertise covers a lot more than ancient history he needs to cut his podcast minutes in half.
He should have faced Newsom in the recall last year as the lone republican. Probably would have lost but it would have been a clear-cut contrast to all the things wrong with this state. Speaks eloquently with a calm demeanor and would force Californians to think more the direction we’re going. Instead we got theatrics with Elder. I’m sure VDH knew it as well.
VDH misses altogether what has happened in the last three weeks. Hamas has already won. VDH doesn’t note the seismic shift in relations between Israel and the entire “moderate Arab” world. The Abraham Accords are dead. Turkey and Israel have for all intents and purposes already cut diplomatic ties. When was the last time the Israelis had to worry about being attacked by Turkey’s army (the largest in NATO) armed with Pakistani nukes?!? Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, all the Gulf States are quickly moving away from Israel and the US. If the IDF wants to level Gaza in a vain attempt to destroy Hamas, I’m sure Hamas would say bring it on, we have 2 million more Palestinian martyrs for you to slaughter on the world stage. If Israel, emboldened by US pledges of total and unlimited military support, does level Gaza and kills tens of thousand in the process, the resultant coalition against it will destroy the nation of Israel. It’ll be Ukraine 2.0. If Israel does not destroy Hamas, VDH is correct about the untenable position that puts Israel in. Israel is screwed. The Hamas action, designed to provoke the Israeli response was a masterstroke.
Exactly True !
Now his streak of failures reaches into the heart of the Homeland, specifically with inflation, the economy and now with foreign un-vetted invaders.
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