The Human Ecology of Overshoot: Why a Major ‘Population Correction’ Is Inevitable

www.mdpi.com ^ | 11 August 2023 | William Reese

[RomanSoldier19]

Introduction and Purpose This paper examines the human population conundrum through the lens of human evolutionary ecology and the role of available energy.

"... In short, humanity has already exceeded the long-term human carrying capacity of the earth." (. The global economy will inevitably contract and humanity will suffer a major population ‘correction’ in this century.

[Eagle Forgotten]

“I’ve read from credible sources that even without advances in technology we could support 30 billion people on Earth.”

Do you have a link? It seems implausible to me. Two obvious questions are: At what standard of living would they be supported (as anthropocene_x pointed out)? For how long could 30 billion people live comfortably on a finite planet before exhausting nonrenewable resources?

Also, if current growth rates continue, the human population will exceed 30 billion before the end of this century. Then what?

If growth must be curbed sooner or later, better to do it sooner, and better to do it through some means other than a mass die-off.

[piytar]

The estimates are all over the place. Don't remember the exact sources but found this.

At what standard of living would they be supported

Probably not a great one esp. at the one trillion level.

[oldvirginian]

“Parson Malthus was WRONG then, his hatchlings are WRONG now.”

Yes they are.

They should have studied Norman Borlaug.
“Borlaug was often called “the father of the Green Revolution”, and is credited with saving over a billion people worldwide from starvation.”

Borlaug developed semi-dwarf, high yield, disease resistant varieties of wheat and exported those varieties and modern rotation farming practices around the world.

For his work he received...

Nobel Peace Prize (1970)
Presidential Medal of Freedom (1977)
ForMemRS (1987)[1]
Vannevar Bush Award (2000)
Public Welfare Medal (2002)
National Medal of Science (2004)
Congressional Gold Medal (2006)
Padma Vibhushan (2006)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug#:~:text=Borlaug%20was%20often%20called%20%22the,billion%20people%20worldwide%20from%20starvation.

[goodnesswins]

That kinda makes me laugh...”Democrats are prepping for mass extermination”

[Eagle Forgotten]

Thanks for the link! But you don’t have to get to an absurd one-trillion population to have a “not great” standard of living.

The money quote from the article you link (emphasis added):

“An average middle-class American consumes 3.3 times the subsistence level of food and almost 250 times the subsistence level of clean water. So if everyone on Earth lived like a middle class American, then the planet might have a carrying capacity of around 2 billion. However, if people only consumed what they actually needed, then the Earth could potentially support a much higher figure.”

We couldn’t just pull up the drawbridge and tell everyone else to go to hell. Our current standard of living depends on importing resources from around the world. We’re already seeing China make major inroads into sources of raw materials in Africa, and even somewhat in South America. As world population grows, the competition for resources will only increase.

[central_va]

We couldn’t just pull up the drawbridge and tell everyone else to go to hell. Our current standard of living depends on importing resources from around the world.

Horse SH!t. The USA could be 100% self sufficient in almost everything. Even oil, if we started doing coal gasification. Take your one world BS and stuff it where the sun doesn't shine.

[piytar]

Oh I agree.

[piytar]

The USA could be 100% self sufficient in almost everything. Even oil, if we started doing coal gasification.

Agree with that, too.

[firebrand]

I don’t get your point but it sounds interesting.

[PGalt]

Well-stated.

[Texas Fossil]

Yes, the “real” green revolution. Plant color, not treehugger green politically.

[Texas Fossil]

I’m not a proponent of Ammonia Fertilizer, because of what it does to tight clay soil. Those in sandy soil, are not harmed as much.

Anhydrous Ammonia is the cheapest fertilizer, but really damages soil culture.

For a long time, no till or limited till was a big booster. Of course it is dependent upon RoundUp. Or like in Central America where they have huge rainfall, they can cover crop rotate.

[FarCenter]

[Texas Fossil]

No issue. It works, FACT.

But it really messes up the soil bacterial culture and you can use it to make a hard landing field.

I understand.

[scrabblehack]

Noah, his sons and their wives.

[oldvirginian]

“Yes, the “real” green revolution. Plant color, not treehugger green politically.”

Exactly.
Borlaug, Cyrus McCormick and others are proof that if humanity faces a problem that can be solved by humans, someone will come up with a practical solution.

[firebrand]

Right! But the harm was already done. People had started using sex for fun, and once that starts there is no easy stopping it. If you consider the Bible chronological, i.e. the story of Adam and Eve came first, you can get the point that A and E ruined us for all time, until Jesus came. Even now it is taking a long time for the message to sink in, even among believers.

But the most important words in the Bible were the first words: I know that my Redeemer lives. All the rest of the Bible came later, including Genesis.

[Texas Fossil]

Totally agree.

My Dad’s Grandfather came to this county in 1889 in 3 wagons with teams of mules, we have owned/operated farms in this country since then. Before that in Coryell county.

Dad’s grandfather has this on his headstone. https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/813228188323160066

I was first in immediate family to leave, was gone 25 years, back since 1995. Will not leave again.