I’m waiting for NYC to dip their toe in this pool - in places like NYC and Chicago you need to turn that table over two or three times a night on busy nights to make a profit. That won’t happen with these goofy wage laws. I’ve also been to Amsterdam (and I’m from NYC) and seen the difference in service. That attitude will come here and table times will rise, which means three times a night will quickly dwindle to two... which is hard to justify the rent on a restaurant when you consider how expensive a storefront is in Manhattan.
Prices will go up, service will go down. Owners will be miserable, landlords will have to deal with folks who can’t manage the change.
That’s not to say that this model can’t work - it’s just extremely difficult. I know one guy (we went to school together, he should be a Freeper) who owns two restaurants in Oregon - he owns both buildings and pays his staff a salary and does not accept tips. Service is great but he doesn’t have the pressure of doing 3 covers per table on a Saturday night... because all of low rent (i.e. managable mortgage). He operates in niches so he doesn’t have to defend his prices much - which, mind you, would be “moderate” in a big city like NYC or Chicago.
I suppose one method to help table turnover could be a small commission per meal. Like a hidden gratuity built into the price of the meal.
Of course, that also encourages the wait staff to recommend more expensive items and to get you out the door as quickly as possible. Good for both the wait staff and the restaurant owner, but not the customer.
That’s why I think the tipping model is the least worst. You will get the best service of the three models.
But you’re right about NYC likely to dip their toe into the minimum wage for tipped staff pool soon. Except they’ll expect people to continue to tip at the same rate as before the price hike to cover the higher wages, and then wonder why it didn’t all work out.
Most bartenders in NYC I’ve talked to about getting minimum wage worry about how it will affect their tips. It may be why it hasn’t been pushed here just yet.