[DoodleBob]

But climate change is settled science. /s

[maddog55]

As a friend of mine said, they can’t get yesterday’s forecast right.

[daniel1212]

Say there is a hypothetical model that perfectly simulates our reality down to the last atom in a droplet of water in the atmosphere. You run the model to forecast the weather, but moments later, in the real world, a tree falls down that is not accounted for in the model. The more time that passes, the further away the model and the reality with the fallen tree will be from each other since the fall will undoubtedly have a ripple effect that will deviate more from the model with time. You might know this as “the butterfly effect.” So the further you look into a forecast on your weather app, the higher the chance it is to be wrong because of the impossibility of accounting for future events. How accurate are longterm weather forecasts? Ullrich explains that essentially unobservable effects that are impossible to predict occur all the time at small scales and can grow over time to become important for the weather forecast. “It’s a fundamental limitation, both of our observational network and just the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere,” Ullrich says.

The NOAA seems to take the safe approach, which is to almost always predict warmer to much warmer than normal (which only goes back about 150 years) for the NE. Predictions last Spring:

https://web.archive.org/web/20230511102349im_/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
https://web.archive.org/web/20230511102349im_/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

In reality: Last year at this time, we were smack dab in the middle of a drought. This summer, we are challenging the all-time seasonal rainfall records in Boston and Worcester. By this date last summer, Boston had 19 days of 90 degrees or higher including a 6-day and 7-day heatwave. This summer, the city has reached 90 just 4 times. - https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/boston-summer-temperatures-90s-climate-change-weather/

Northeast's hottest weather of summer may come in early September ....for the summer season as a whole, temperatures in many areas during the three-month period from June 1 to Aug. 31, cumulative temperatures are finishing within 1 degree of the historical average and rainfall has ended up near the historical average.
A notable exception is in New England where summer rainfall was nearly two times that of the historical average, thanks in large part to excessive rain in July. - https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/northeasts-hottest-weather-of-summer-may-come-in-early-september/1575776 Composite from above: past and present NOAA predictions:

[SMARTY]

Right, they can’t forecast 2 weeks out but demand BILLIONS to ‘fix’ the climate?????

[sauropod]

Science.

[CFW]

Weather forecasts aren’t even accurate 24 hours out. Last Sunday, my husband wanted to do an outside project and asked me what the weather was going to be like for the upcoming week. I told him practically no chance of rain according to the forecast. It rained on each and every day.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Here in GA its hardly accurate for one week.

[minnesota_bound]

But the socialist know to 1/2 degree the temperature 100 years in the future.
I look at the weather forecast at night and the next day and the rest of the week I see the forecast constantly changing. They cannot get 1 day accurate.