A timeline helps:
1. WE SET THIS ALL IN MOTION in October 2021: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/
2. Russia goes in a world tour, repeatedly stating that they will NOT tolerate more missiles, fighters, tanks, bombers, and troops of ours playing on their border:
3. By end of November the Russians are moving forces in large numbers to the border of Ukraine, conducting live fire exercises, etc.
The Russians should not be expected to swallow a shit pill we would not swallow if in their shoes. In fact, we have not historically and our “shere of influence” and “red line” is far further from our border, larger and with a lower threshold. We see the Pacific Rim as ours, we see Central and South America as ours, Europe as ours... if the Soviets dare put missiles in Cuba, sovereign or not, we threatened a war, even if 90 miles of water separate our two nations, Washington DC is far further from Cuba and there were no such thing as hypersonic missiles...: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis
We put the Russians in an awful position, either acquiesce to a horrible security situation, or go to war, and in short time since we were deliberately moving as fast as possible.
Why can Russia not accept Ukraine in NATO, at least not without assurances and limitations?
-Ukraine and Russia have the same rail gauge.
-They are connected by major hardball roads.
-Ukraine has airfields capable of supporting strategic bombers and logistics: B52/2 C5.
-Ukraine is big and can hide things in large forested areas.
-With a complex and large infrastructure, big economy, and landmass, Ukraine can support the permanent basing of US and other NATO troops.
-Land tied to other NATO nations (Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary), and with major sea ports, logistics is easy.
-Situated to the South West, and extending East, Ukraine is in close proximity to the bulk of Russian ICBMS (boost phase), and along their flightpath (mid course) intercept. With a hypersonic missile, ***6 minutes time of flight to Moscow.*** This is why us bailing on the ballistic missile treaty plays a role today. We would have an immense first strike advantage:
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-07/news/us-withdraws-abm-treaty-global-response-muted
-With areas of flat and open terrain, Ukraine allows a large mechanized force to be shoved into Russia.
-Ukraine would hand the Black Sea’s control to the US.
Now, you can assume that the Russians are just mean evil people, led by an irrational mad man that wants to rebuild the Soviet empire, with no facts, time table, nor realistic motiv. Or you can consider that maybe the Russians aren’t so entirely stupid, that we are asking them to accept something we would never accept, that a timeline doesn’t match up with the random act of un-aggravated aggression, nor do the Russians have a motive to damage one of their major trade partners, etc...
Ukraine is a colossal policy failure which led to a war and likely long term proxy campaigns against each other. Eventually, American kids will die.
Afghanistan was a policy disaster, and Ukraine is no better. Only in Ukraine you have economic interests both in the US and Europe that wanted this.
This is IMHO: Ukraine was a “half baked” idea conjured up by the same geniuses which gave us Afghanistan, idiots like Jake Sullivan. It was supposed to make important people happy, those that were behind Biden.
The ONLY difference between the disaster in Afghanistan and Ukraine is that Biden isn’t taking a black eye and bloody nose regards Ukraine. He and his clowns should, but they aren’t.
There was no reason for this war. It was an extremely high risk gamble with a relatively low pay off (except for Biden) since Ukraine would have likely been in the EU had this war not happened and even with the blessing of the Russians. Ukraine already was enjoying training, arms, Intel sharing, even some exercise with NATO nations etc. Making this into a “winner takes all” situation, ignoring Russia’s security concerns, caused this war, and it has a predictable outcome.
Answer this, what was wrong with the trajectory we were on (arm, train, share Intel with Ukraine) all the way until October 2021?
I know when Russia’s rich invaded Ukraine and launched the biggest European war since WWII to conquer new lands, population, and wealth.