Posted on 07/31/2023 1:07:34 PM PDT by Mariner
Amid the never-ending coverage of the latest offensive or counteroffensive in Ukraine, it is often unappreciated just how much worse the global economic repercussions from the conflict could have been. Russia is the world’s leading exporter of gas and provided around 50% of the EU’s demand before the war; Ukraine, meanwhile, is a major exporter of grain, alongside Russia itself. The complete disruption of either of these channels would have resulted in catastrophe.
The fact this didn’t happen last year was largely thanks to two crucial agreements secured early in the conflict: the Black Sea Grain Initiative, whereby Russia allowed Ukraine to continue exporting grain via the Black Sea (which is under its control), and a deal that allowed Russian gas to continue flowing to Europe via Ukraine. But the former has just been suspended, and the latter could soon be terminated. The true cost of this war, it seems, is about to greatly increase.
When the grain deal was brokered last July, António Guterres, the secretary-general of the UN, called it a “beacon of hope” — and rightly so. Reaching an agreement of this kind was a remarkable achievement and a big, if rare, victory for international diplomacy. It contributed to significantly lowering grain prices and avoided a collapse in Ukrainian exports (which only declined by around 30%) — effectively preventing a potential global humanitarian disaster. Over the past year, more than 1,000 ships (containing nearly 33 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs) left Ukraine from three Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.
On July 17, however, Putin pulled out of the deal. Russia’s move didn’t come out of the blue. As Western sanctions increased, the deal had started coming under growing strain, with the Kremlin claiming that the West wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain,
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
“But the most important demand was the resumption of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which runs from the Russian city of Togliatti to various Black Sea ports in Ukraine, and which prior to the war exported 2.5 million tonnes of ammonia annually. As part of the negotiations over the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Kyiv and Moscow struck a deal to allow the safe passage of ammonia through the pipeline — but the latter was never reopened by Ukraine. Last September, the UN urged Ukraine to resume its transport, in view of ammonia fertiliser’s crucial role in supporting global agricultural productions, but to no avail.”
btt
One of the other of two countries can stop the war.
Ukraine can surrender and halt all hostilities
Russia can pull out and halt all hostilities.
Which one is more likely to NOT happen?
Ukraine will eventually surrender when the west tells them they must...in order to keep the cash flowing.
If the west completely abandoned Ukraine, they would all be hanging from lamp posts inside a month. And Ukraine is keenly aware of it.
So, they’ll do what the US tells them to do.
Knowing this war is a contest of wills between the US/EU and Russia, who do you think will surrender first?
Ukraine can still export it’s grain just not through the sea ports.
It’s funny how these civilized trade agreements in the middle of battlefield combatants blowing each other to pieces on ever come into existence, especially that the stronger side ever agrees to them in the first place. It was supposedly scandalous when Grant stopped prisoner swaps with the South, but from his standpoint it made perfect sense: they will run out of men faster than I will, so why would I continue this?
Putin thought he could win the war quickly, but now that it’s dragged on, he’s looking to tighten the screws which this will help accomplish. Forget about Ukraine’s arms situation, you have to wonder how many men they even have left.
“Ukraine can still export it’s grain just not through the sea ports.”
At 1/4 the previous rate.
And that means even MORE $billions will be required to keep them afloat. At least another $25billion per year from somebody...
That’s just to keep the power on and government workers paid. It does not keep groceries on the shelf or gasoline at the station.
And at how much additional cost? Rail? Truck? Cargo plane?
Also, not mentioned. Turkey released the Neo Nazis that were captured in Marioupol. Part of the grain deal was when Vlad handed the Ukie Nazi’s over to Turkey till the war’s end…..and trial. Erodogan released them which of course enraged Vlad, the “ last straw”.
"wind down its industrial activities" - sounds so simple, doesn't it?
The one worlders getting exactly what they want, death and mayhem.
With the advent of a nuclear was between the United States of America and Russia the secret viruses and contents of the Bio Labs in Ukraine will be forever safe from discovery.
AIS shows a Hong Kong flagged cargo carrier in Odessa right now. It would sure be a shame for Ruzzia if they attack it when it heads for the Bosporous.
Not my concern.
“… a deal that allowed Russian gas to continue flowing to Europe via Ukraine…. could soon be terminated. The true cost of this war, it seems, is about to greatly increase….”
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I’d be very surprised if the Ukrainians turned off distribution of Russian natural gas to Western Europe. Doing so would result in the IMMEDIATE CUTOFF of Russian natural gas into Ukraine. Ukraine needs that natural gas at least as much as Western European nations need it and WINTER IS COMING.
“It would sure be a shame for Ruzzia if they attack it when it heads for the Bosporous.”
How so?
Besides, they won’t “attack” it unless the fail to heave to. Then they will arrest the crew and tug the ship to a Russian port.
And nobody will do jack sh!t about it.
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