They are just following the new US policy.
Posted on 07/26/2023 4:51:53 AM PDT by AdmSmith
Access to the residence and offices of Niger President Mohamed Bazoum was blocked off Wednesday by members of the elite Presidential Guard, a source close to Bazoum said, although the reason was unclear. Access to the residence and offices of Niger President Mohamed Bazoum was blocked off Wednesday by members of the elite Presidential Guard.
The landlocked West African state is one of the most unstable nations in the world, experiencing four coups since independence from France in 1960 as well as numerous other attempts on power.
The country is struggling with two jihadist campaigns -- one in the southwest, which swept in from neighbouring Mali in 2015, and the other in the southeast, involving jihadists based in northeastern Nigeria.
According to RFI’s Hausa editorial staff, the highly respected Sultan of Sokoto, a prominent traditional and religious leader, is part of this delegation, which is also led by the former Nigerian head of state, Abdulsalami Abubakar, known for having ensured Nigeria's transition to democracy in 1999.
Abdulsalami Abubakar, architect of a democratic transition
After a long military career that began in the 1960s, this former army chief succeeded General Sani Abacha as head of the country in 1998. Less than a year later, Abdulsalami Abubakar organized multiparty elections and transferred power President Olusegun Obasanjo, democratically elected in 1999.
At 81, Abdulsalami Abubakar still chairs the National Peace Committee, a body responsible for ensuring the smooth running of Nigerian elections.
You can not say that they are not trying to fix this.
They are just following the new US policy.
https://twitter.com/SimNasr/status/1686725855408496640
Wagner Memento mori: What happened on 7 February 2018 near the towns of Khasham and Al Tabiyeh in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate, Syria? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham
6JUN2023 Wassim Nasr:
France had the military power to stop Wagner and to provoke political change in Bamako, but it chose not to. Nor did Paris not help Lieutenant Colonel Damiba in neighboring Burkina Faso when he was challenged and ousted by the young captain Traore, who called on French special operations forces present in the outskirts of the capital Ouagadougou since 2009 to leave the country in February 2023, a few months after his coup.
Washington and Paris should consider the jihadi factions in the Sahel as principally insurgencies, which they are, and use any means possible to confront and contain them, including negotiation. At the same time, they must also attend to the competition with rogue actors such as Wagner. Both issues should be addressed with the support of local populations and with a view to local dynamics. Avoiding simplistic anlaysis and absurd slogans like “war on terror” is key. The last two decades are here to remind us that poor political decisions are the result. A more nuanced and locally-informed view is badly needed.
https://www.hoover.org/research/new-dynamics-sahel-region
True.
https://twitter.com/J_LuengoCabrera/status/1686781740931596297
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2in32aXwAktlKe?format=webp&name=small
Harm’s Way?
We have a winner.
I write this as a hostage. Niger is under attack by a military junta trying to overthrow our democracy, and I am just one of hundreds of citizens who have been arbitrarily and illegally imprisoned. This coup, launched against my government by a military faction on July 26, has no justification. If successful, it will have devastating consequences for our country, our region and the whole world.
Our government came to power through democratic elections in 2021. Any attempt to overthrow a legitimate government must be resisted, and we appreciate the strong and unequivocal condemnations of this cynical effort to undermine the remarkable progress Niger has made in framework of democracy. The United States, the African and European Unions and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have said loud and clear: this coup must end and the junta must release all those they illegally arrested.
The coup plotters falsely claim that they acted to protect Niger's security. They claim that our war against jihadist terrorists is failing and that my economic and social governance, including partnerships with the United States and Europe, has harmed our country.
In fact, Niger's security situation has improved considerably, facilitated by the partnerships the junta opposes. Foreign aid constitutes 40 percent of our national budget, but it will not be delivered if the coup succeeds.
In the south, where we face the terrorist group Boko Haram, there have been almost no attacks for two years, and the refugees are returning to their villages. To reflect this reality, our partners, including the U.S. Agency for International Development, are shifting from humanitarian assistance to development initiatives such as building sustainable energy, improving agricultural productivity, and education. of the next generation of Nigerien leaders.
The north and west of the country have also not suffered major attacks since I took office in 2021. Thanks to the support of our allies and the training of our partners, including the National Guard of Indiana, Niger is now the safest it has been in the last 15 years.
Notably, Niger's security situation is significantly better than that of our neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso, whose governments, both installed by military takeovers, support the illegal coup. Rather than addressing security concerns by building their own capabilities, they employ criminal Russian mercenaries such as the Wagner Group to the detriment of the rights and dignity of their people.
My government has also succeeded in economic and social governance. After a slow recovery from covid-19 in 2021, our per capita growth rate more than tripled to 7.4 percent last year.
2022 was Niger's first year without a single day of school lost to teacher or student strikes. Workers did not go on strike in a major sector, and my administration signed historic agreements with unions to create a safer and more stable working environment across the country.
We cannot afford to lose this momentum. Recognizing the threat the potential fall of Niger poses to the region, our ECOWAS neighbors have announced unprecedented sanctions, including a ban on oil exports and imports, and a suspension of cross-border financial transactions.
These measures already show what a future would look like under an autocratic junta without vision or reliable allies. The price of rice rose by 40 percent between Sunday and Tuesday, and some neighborhoods began to report shortages of goods and electricity.
In Africa's troubled Sahel region, Niger is the last bastion of respect for human rights amid authoritarian movements that have overtaken some of our neighbours. While this coup attempt is a tragedy for Nigeriens, its success would have devastating consequences far beyond our borders.
With an open invitation from coup plotters and their regional allies, the entire central Sahel region could fall under Russian influence via the Wagner Group, whose brutal terrorism has been on display in Ukraine.
Boko Haram and other terrorist movements will certainly take advantage of Niger's instability, using our country as a staging ground to attack neighboring countries and undermine peace, security and freedom in the world. They will step up their efforts to target our young people with hateful anti-Western indoctrination, pitting them against the very partners who help us build a more hopeful future.
At a time when we need it, I call on the American government and the entire international community to help us restore our constitutional order. Fighting for our common values, including democratic pluralism and respect for the rule of law, is the only way to make lasting progress in the fight against poverty and terrorism. The people of Niger will never forget your support at this pivotal moment in our history.
HE MOHAMED BAZOUM
PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER
Wassim Nasr: I think that it is a bit of an exaggeration. But if Niger enters a phase of chaos, that will surely benefit jihadist groups. We should define what “chaos” means in this context. One thing is certain, if the military junta stays in power, the policies implemented under President Mohamed Bazoum will unravel. Supported on the ground by French and US forces, as well as an increasing number of drone purchases, the president waged a war against the terrorists militarily. The multidimensional battles he fought against the jihadist groups was based on a three-pronged logic: “negotiate, develop, wage war”.
The government managed to conduct negotiations with al Qaeda and in parallel, pursued a policy of “jihadist demobilization”. Niger's authorities “took” jihadist fighters and reintegrated them into local security forces, like in the Diffa and Tillaberi regions. The government also implemented a development policy, specifically aimed at tackling land issues and agrarian reforms. All these elements combined meant that, compared to neighbouring countries like Mali or Burkina Faso, Niger saw far fewer attacks and deaths brought on by jihadist groups. If these multidimensional efforts come to an end, security will certainly deteriorate. But the policies already belong to the past. Military cooperation with France ended as soon as the junta claimed power, making room for jihadist groups [in the region]. And they could choose to follow the same path Burkina Faso or Mali's junta took, a “fully military” approach with all of the acts of violence against civilians that come with it. That violence makes it mathematically easier for jihadist groups to recruit members. Bereaved by the army, civilians become driven by a desire for revenge.
FRANCE 24: What about the potential spread of jihadist groups in the region Liam-Tinguiri alluded to?
Wassim Nasr: Beyond Niger, the Islamic State group (IS group) could benefit from the crisis by establishing a corridor between Lake Chad and the Sahel region. It would facilitate the transit of military commanders, fighters and jihadist recruits, who could replenish the ranks of the IS group in the Sahel. Al Qaeda has been standing in the way of the IS group. The two are in conflict, particularly in the three border regions [Edit: between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger]. But if the Islamic State group becomes stronger and was to gain the upper hand over al Qaeda, the doors to countries in the Gulf of Guinea would open.
FRANCE 24: If Russia's Wagner group admit they are present in Niger, what consequences would this have?
Wassim Nasr: On the ground, the Wagner group doesn't contribute much security-wise to the junta. In the fight against jihadist groups, Niamey had no better allies than France and the US. The Russians are not efficient in that regard. The case in Mali bears witness to this (when in 2022, French troops gradually left the country, leaving room for Russian mercenaries to take over). For the past year and a half, jihadist attacks have multiplied in the country and the IS group now has a sanctuary there. It even benefits from a no-fly zone that protects jihadist groups. For the junta in Niger on the other hand, the drive to gain support from Wagner is political, as they need allies to stay in power. The Wagner group is not Russia, but since it works in Moscow's interests, it's associated with the Kremlin. This vague relationship poses a political dilemma for France, who is asking itself: “Should we strike Wagner or not?” For the junta, the mercenary group acts as a shield against foreign intervention and strengthens them in relation to their rivals inside the country.
FRANCE 24: The US army has a drone base in northern Niger, in Agadez. If it shuts down, what consequences would that have?
Wassim Nasr: The drone base is a fundamental factor. Let's not forget that it is now impossible for a foreign presence to stay in Niger without the consent of the junta. From their point of view, tolerating a US presence would be tantamount to accepting the current situation. That is why keeping the drone base doesn't seem like a plausible outcome [for the Junta]. Washington and Paris are fully aware of the importance of this local security bolt hole. If it breaks, others will follow. This US drone base may be based in Niger, but it doesn't concern the country so much as the region as a whole. It covers the entire Sahel.
Wassim is spot on.
Niger’s coup was the culmination of months of acrimony between President Mohamed Bazoum and his chief guard over the leader’s attempts to emerge from the shadow of his predecessor, people familiar with the matter said.
Since taking over from his political godfather Mahamadou Issoufou in 2021, Bazoum had sought to stamp his authority on the West African country by sidelining a number of senior people in both the military and public administration.
When the head of his powerful presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tiani, feared he was next for the chop, he turned on his boss, confident other military commanders would eventually fall in line, the people familiar with the matter said.
Tiani, who was head of Issoufou’s guard for a decade and helped thwart a coup days before Bazoum took over, stayed on in his role under the new president, commanding the most powerful and best-equipped force based in the capital Niamey.
But in recent months, Bazoum had curtailed the size of the presidential guard, which was about 700-strong at the time of the coup, and started to scrutinize its budget.
Keen to save his own skin, Tiani, a man who had worked his way up through the ranks and was named general by Issoufou, had sounded out a select few commanders about his coup plans to ensure other branches of the military would not oppose him, two people with knowledge of the coup plotter’s thinking said.
More details:
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/behind-nigers-coup-feud-over-former-presidents-legacy-2023-08-06/
The KREMLIN RU
Several sources reported that the fighters of the PMC Wagner, located in Belarus, suddenly received leave and are going to Russia. Some fighters are going on a business trip to Africa.
PMC Redut, created on Shoigu’s command, which was guarding some facilities in Syria, and then recruiting people to various PMCs in the NVO zone, is now actively calling Wagner PMC fighters and offering them work in Africa. At the same time, recruiters say that they have been given the task of “replacing Prigozhin’s entire garden.” Thus, Shoigu, who is jealous and afraid of the head of the “Wagnerites”, is trying to take away the glory of Prigozhin, who at the moment has crushed a significant part of Africa under him.
However, it is worth noting that most likely such a replacement will only lead to a guaranteed loss of Russian control over Africa. Africans do not trust the Russian government and treaties, they trust Prigozhin’s personal word and the effectiveness of the Wagner PMC under his control. With the advent of Redoubt, the Africans are guaranteed to fall off. This has already happened in Mozambique and Sudan, where the well-trained Russian special forces were defeated and only Wagner was able to achieve effectiveness.
Check the map above.
04AUG2023 The Group of Support to Islam and Muslims (Jnim), affiliated to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI), has claimed responsibility for the shooting down of a helicopter belonging to the Russian paramilitary company Wagner in the Macina area, in central Mali. It is not known when or where the helicopter was shot down, or if there were any deaths or injuries. The episode, in any case, takes place a few days after the air raid carried out last June 30 in eastern Libya against a Wagner group air base. A bombing that would have been carried out against the Al Khadim air base , near the city of Al Marj, known for the presence of Wagner units, and which allegedly targeted a Russian-made Il-76 transport aircraft, which the Russian paramilitary group Wagner uses in Libya and on the African continent, according to reports from the open intelligence platform source “Eekad”. These are two episodes which, although they have no apparent direct links, have the Wagner group as their common target, which has two of its main bases for its activities in Africa precisely in Libya and Mali.
Today: It is reported that a skirmish between Wagner and Malian bandits took place in one of the settlements on the Niger-Mali border.
https://t.me/wagnernew/9465
NASR: If this coup in Niger works out, all governments in Africa should be worried about their military. So it's a very important moment because otherwise, if nothing is done, well, maybe Western powers should leave the region, actually, because there's no point in staying there if you are not willing to at least accept that the rules of the games are changing and adapt to them.
PERALTA: What do you mean by the rules of the game are changing?
NASR: Well, actually, the Russians are playing dirty. They are sending mercenaries who are committing human rights abuses. They are backing coups. They are - you know, it's the Cold War play, you see? So if Western powers think that only by development and seminars and only by thinking war on terror things will work out by themselves, I don't think it's going to work out.
PERALTA: So, I mean, what you're describing is just a region full of instability. And it's - look. This is already a region that has been battered by violence. What's the humanitarian outlook here?
NASR: It's a disaster - Wagner's involvement that I got to work on very seriously in Mali for a year. There's a blood train behind their involvement and zero results against jihadis, you see, because they are killing innocent people in villages in Mali and Burkina Faso, which is fueling the recruitment of jihadi groups, actually, and without getting any actual military results on the ground. So the civilians are paying the highest price.
Not easy to solve the problems with the Jihadists/Islamists when Algeria has this background:
Al-Qa’ida got badly burned in Algeria in the 1990s, where their local jihadist affiliate, the Armed Islamic Group or GIA, wound up deeply penetrated by Algeria’s clever and nasty military intelligence service (they, too, were trained by the KGB), which seeded terrorist ranks with agents provocateurs. These moles blew operations, caused lethal infighting, perpetrated atrocities to discredit the jihadists, and gradually ran GIA into the ground. By early 1997, Al-Qa’ida cut all ties with GIA, realizing it was a murderous disaster that was functionally under the control of Algerian intelligence. Their penchant for killing Algerian civilians by the hundreds for no particular reason caused consternation and embarrassment among terrorist higher-ups, who realized it was damaging their jihadist brand. Yes, you really can be too crazy to be in Al-Qa’ida.
https://observer.com/2016/06/how-to-defeat-the-islamic-state/
and Daesh/ISIS was manipulated/run by Syria.
In 2103: The U.S. has been unable to secure thousands of potentially dangerous shoulder-fired missiles known as “MANPADS” that were leftover from the Qaddafi regime in Libya. The U.S. has been unable to secure thousands of potentially dangerous shoulder-fired missiles known as “MANPADS” that were leftover from the Qaddafi regime in Libya, CBS News has learned.
MANPADS stands for “Man-portable air-defense systems.” According to a well-placed source, hundreds of the missiles have been tracked as having gone to Al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), an Algeria-based Sunni Muslim terrorist group fighting for control in Mali.
“I would imagine they’re trying to get their hands on as many weapons such as MANPADS as they can,” says CBS News national security consultant Juan Zarate. “It’s a danger both to the military conflict underway in Mali and a real threat to civilian aircraft if, in fact, terrorists have their hands on these MANPADS.”
Before his overthrow and death in the fall of 2011, Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi was believed to have purchased 15,000-20,000 Soviet MANPADS. Concern over the whereabouts of the missiles - and the possibility that terrorists could buy them on the black market and even use them to shoot down American passenger jets - drove a U.S. effort to recover as many as possible. But only about 2,000 were accounted for prior to the Sept. 11, 2012 terrorist attacks on Benghazi, Libya, according to the source. He describes those working to locate the missiles as “beside themselves” and “frustrated.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thousands-of-libyan-missiles-from-qaddafi-era-missing-in-action/
Once Russia has lost its war in Ukraine, Africa will also be a calmer place.
IS Militants in the Sahel swear allegiance to the new caliph of the Islamic State. Fighters from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso pledged Bay’ah after fighters in Iraq, Nigeria and Somalia did so as well.
https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1688679205884907522
Russian disinformation is working hard to blame this on the West
West African nations have approved armed intervention in Niger “as soon as possible”, the Ivory Coast president says, following a meeting to discuss the coup. At the meeting, leaders of the Ecowas regional bloc said they had agreed to assemble a “standby” military force.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu said the use of force would be a “last resort”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66465146
https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-jihadis-west-africa-9032a0e1161551ffcfde4b785f6cf74a
But a threat like this is only effective before it is implemented.
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