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This was the mistake:>

6JUN2023 Wassim Nasr:

France had the military power to stop Wagner and to provoke political change in Bamako, but it chose not to. Nor did Paris not help Lieutenant Colonel Damiba in neighboring Burkina Faso when he was challenged and ousted by the young captain Traore, who called on French special operations forces present in the outskirts of the capital Ouagadougou since 2009 to leave the country in February 2023, a few months after his coup.

Washington and Paris should consider the jihadi factions in the Sahel as principally insurgencies, which they are, and use any means possible to confront and contain them, including negotiation. At the same time, they must also attend to the competition with rogue actors such as Wagner. Both issues should be addressed with the support of local populations and with a view to local dynamics. Avoiding simplistic anlaysis and absurd slogans like “war on terror” is key. The last two decades are here to remind us that poor political decisions are the result. A more nuanced and locally-informed view is badly needed.

https://www.hoover.org/research/new-dynamics-sahel-region

True.

FRANCE 24: On Thursday, Niger's ambassador to the USA Kiari Liman-Tinguiri called on the junta to “come to reason” and warned that if Niger collapses, the “entire Sahel” region could fall to jihadists. He went on to say jihadist groups could “control Africa from the coast to the Mediterranean” [and thus Europe]. Do you share his fears?

Wassim Nasr: I think that it is a bit of an exaggeration. But if Niger enters a phase of chaos, that will surely benefit jihadist groups. We should define what “chaos” means in this context. One thing is certain, if the military junta stays in power, the policies implemented under President Mohamed Bazoum will unravel. Supported on the ground by French and US forces, as well as an increasing number of drone purchases, the president waged a war against the terrorists militarily. The multidimensional battles he fought against the jihadist groups was based on a three-pronged logic: “negotiate, develop, wage war”.

The government managed to conduct negotiations with al Qaeda and in parallel, pursued a policy of “jihadist demobilization”. Niger's authorities “took” jihadist fighters and reintegrated them into local security forces, like in the Diffa and Tillaberi regions. The government also implemented a development policy, specifically aimed at tackling land issues and agrarian reforms. All these elements combined meant that, compared to neighbouring countries like Mali or Burkina Faso, Niger saw far fewer attacks and deaths brought on by jihadist groups. If these multidimensional efforts come to an end, security will certainly deteriorate. But the policies already belong to the past. Military cooperation with France ended as soon as the junta claimed power, making room for jihadist groups [in the region]. And they could choose to follow the same path Burkina Faso or Mali's junta took, a “fully military” approach with all of the acts of violence against civilians that come with it. That violence makes it mathematically easier for jihadist groups to recruit members. Bereaved by the army, civilians become driven by a desire for revenge.

FRANCE 24: What about the potential spread of jihadist groups in the region Liam-Tinguiri alluded to?

Wassim Nasr: Beyond Niger, the Islamic State group (IS group) could benefit from the crisis by establishing a corridor between Lake Chad and the Sahel region. It would facilitate the transit of military commanders, fighters and jihadist recruits, who could replenish the ranks of the IS group in the Sahel. Al Qaeda has been standing in the way of the IS group. The two are in conflict, particularly in the three border regions [Edit: between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger]. But if the Islamic State group becomes stronger and was to gain the upper hand over al Qaeda, the doors to countries in the Gulf of Guinea would open.

FRANCE 24: If Russia's Wagner group admit they are present in Niger, what consequences would this have?

Wassim Nasr: On the ground, the Wagner group doesn't contribute much security-wise to the junta. In the fight against jihadist groups, Niamey had no better allies than France and the US. The Russians are not efficient in that regard. The case in Mali bears witness to this (when in 2022, French troops gradually left the country, leaving room for Russian mercenaries to take over). For the past year and a half, jihadist attacks have multiplied in the country and the IS group now has a sanctuary there. It even benefits from a no-fly zone that protects jihadist groups. For the junta in Niger on the other hand, the drive to gain support from Wagner is political, as they need allies to stay in power. The Wagner group is not Russia, but since it works in Moscow's interests, it's associated with the Kremlin. This vague relationship poses a political dilemma for France, who is asking itself: “Should we strike Wagner or not?” For the junta, the mercenary group acts as a shield against foreign intervention and strengthens them in relation to their rivals inside the country.

FRANCE 24: The US army has a drone base in northern Niger, in Agadez. If it shuts down, what consequences would that have?

Wassim Nasr: The drone base is a fundamental factor. Let's not forget that it is now impossible for a foreign presence to stay in Niger without the consent of the junta. From their point of view, tolerating a US presence would be tantamount to accepting the current situation. That is why keeping the drone base doesn't seem like a plausible outcome [for the Junta]. Washington and Paris are fully aware of the importance of this local security bolt hole. If it breaks, others will follow. This US drone base may be based in Niger, but it doesn't concern the country so much as the region as a whole. It covers the entire Sahel.

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230804-in-the-fight-against-jihadist-groups-niger-has-no-better-allies-than-france-and-the-us

Wassim is spot on.