Posted on 07/22/2023 4:27:03 PM PDT by delta7
With no significant breakthrough after six weeks, it is worth asking whether Ukraine’s counter-offensive can ever succeed, for it certainly doesn’t look to be succeeding now.
Compare the glacial but costly progress today to the lightning victories at Kharkiv and Kherson last autumn. Back then Kyiv’s forces were advancing against a withdrawing enemy that was pulling back to redeploy troops, trading space for time. Having now built up their forces through mobilisation and dug extensive defence lines, this time the Russians aren’t going anywhere.
That has left Ukraine with one option: launching frontal attacks against heavily defended positions, almost akin to the Western Front in World War I where trench lines ran continuously from Switzerland to the sea, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough for four years. Such an outcome today would leave Kyiv vulnerable to shifts in Western opinion, given the possibility of a Trump presidency or European fatigue. This is something President Zelensky must be aware of; and is perhaps causing great consternation.
The question to be asked is: are the Ukrainians prepared – militarily, politically, financially – to carry out months and potentially years of these attacks to penetrate 1914-18 style defensive belts of tank traps, barbed wire, minefields, bunkers and trench lines? The UK Ministry of Defence has described these Russian fortifications as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.
In the south, which appears to be Kyiv’s main effort at the moment, the terrain is mostly open farmland, with few covered approaches, making surprise, which is a critical factor for success in war, virtually impossible. That lack of surprise only compounds Kyiv’s combat inferiority.
Ukraine is already outnumbered in every military capability. Its dire shortage of armoured vehicles means that Kyiv is approaching this counter-offensive with immense caution. Many Nato-supplied tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were knocked out during early probing attacks and they are consequently holding most of the rest of these assets back to avoid too many more losses. That is understandable – yet only a bold, concerted assault with massed armour is likely to overcome the Russians.
So what is the main problem? Some in Kyiv are pointing to the lack of air support, highlighting the reluctance of Western partners to provide F-16 jets (though Britain has already pledged to train pilots). But this would not solve Kyiv’s immediate dilemmas.
It takes months to train and then many more months to transfer the jets. Furthermore, as America’s top general, Mark Milley, has already pointed out, “The Russians have 1,000 fourth-generation fighters. If you’re going to contest Russia in the air, you’re going to need a substantial amount of fourth and fifth generation fighters.” We must recognise two things: this is not possible in the present context, and air power is not a magic bullet anyway.
Others have suggested that Nato planners and strategists should be more involved. Yet they are already helping to a great extent, sometimes for good and sometimes for not.
Ultimately, the possibility of a Ukrainian recovery comes down to its ability to complete frontal assaults. This strategy has been decried at least since the First World War by military theorists who rightly extol the virtues of the “indirect approach” – that is advancing along lines of least resistance to disrupt the enemy’s equilibrium before attacking into weakened front-line defences. But given Kyiv’s position, it does not have the privilege of philosophising.
The West, meanwhile, should focus on providing the right practical equipment, such as demining kit to clear paths through enemy obstacles, cluster munitions and ATACM long-range missiles. It will take a focus on grubby land warfare – and not sky-high dreams – to tip the balance.
Putin just bombed and destroyed the Orthodox Christian Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa with a cruise missile tonight.
Citation?
Nothing a few billion couldn’t solve
The latest on Wagner, more US equipment destroyed, piling up in heaps….go Joe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqTDh5rd7Nw
No, Ukraine did that, a false flag. Just like they did all the other bombings and Nordstream Pipeline and tried to get their Western media hacks to blame Russia for it.
No, the killing and dying on both sides will just go on, and om, while it sucks up more and more of our money. Freaking WW1 stuff.😡
Don’t worry folks! G W MORON will paint pictures of the victims while he’s soaking in the bath tub!
Fixed it.
From the Telegraph, eh? We’ve reached the point where propaganda can’t hide the devastation on the battlefield.
Good one.
On both sides.
How does it feel to have 18 months of propaganda go up in smoke?
Odesa’s main Orthodox cathedral. Established in 1794, destroyed by Stalin in 1936, rebuilt under an independent Ukraine and destroyed again by Putin in 2023. One of several historical parts of central Odesa, a UNESCO world heritage site, hit by Russian missiles strikes today.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682892910755282945
Odesa - There aren’t enough emergency services to assist all wounded and extinguish all burning buildings after so many Russian missile strikes.
Locals trying to save this church.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1682889716709097472
Odesa, now, after around 10 Russian cruise missiles struck the city.
There are as many as 50 dead across the city.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1682886373458554881
One of countless buildings hit by Russian cruise missiles an hour ago in Odesa.
A church.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1682886886287613955
Bump.
Ukraine is being used as a black-hole for the west’s money, equipment and ability to make war.
In fact, objectively - that is what’s happening. I’m surprised so few see it.
How many Ukie soldiers were in it? How many Ukie military vehicles were in the parking lot? A link would be helpful in determining fact from fiction ( confirmation video preferred)…I do post links and video to support my “ claims”.
The Ukies are in the last phase, desperation, much like the Japs in WW2. All the non western video confirmation out there paints a disgusting picture: to the very last Ukrainian….brought to you by senile Joe and war cheerleaders.
all out
diversity supremacy
or
bust
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