Posted on 07/19/2023 8:04:42 AM PDT by caww
Since Putin’s tanks crossed into Ukrainian territory, three options have been on the table for how this war would end:... victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement.
The long-planned counter-offensive, has run into several problems.. It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians. They lack the air cover and advanced jets to protect their ground forces from Russian attack helicopters and fighters. Their soldiers, meanwhile must negotiate miles of minefields, tank-traps and then ultimately the heavily dug Russian trench networks.
The variable that isn’t on their side is time. In war, time is perhaps the cruellest factor one cannot change...Summer will soon begin to roll into autumn. Indeed, we are already half-way through the season. The fighting will begin to grind to a cold halt as the freezing winter saps troops’ ability to conduct high-intensity warfare. This will only give Russia more time to further build up its defences, as it did last winter.
If Kyiv fails in its battlefield endeavours 'to split that land bridge, and retake much of its own territory' by winter, then vocal calls of territorial concessions for marginal political outcomes will likely become far more prevalent – not just in Ukraine but likely from western capitals, as so-called “war-fatigue” begins to bite, international stockpiles of equipment and ammunition wither and politicians begin to worry about domestic budgets ahead of national elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
“Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.”
Russia would never agree to that.
“Ukraine remains neutral.”
Ukraine would never agree to that.
So the fighting continues I guess.
Exactly, we know there is an element of both sides in this conflict that won’t accept living next to each other and violence is inevitable, the only question is how bad will it get
“… three options have been on the table for how this war would end:... victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement.”
That is four possibilities: victory for one side, victory for the other, a negotiated settlement or a frozen conflict. They aren’t actually options either. Option implies choice.
“… four possible outcomes have been on the table for how this war would end:... victory for one side, victory for the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement.”
“ LOOK AT Hiroshima in Japan today. America, in her arrogance thought we could change history and stop such things—we couldn’t.”
But you have to hand it to America, no one combines arrogance and incompetence half as well as we do.
Hawaii is a very interesting case. It is clear that the U.S. illegally toppled the king and annexed the island.
“Are Moldova, Georgia, or the Balkans threats to the Russian border???”
Yes, for Georgia. Soon for Moldova if Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine. Balkans a little bit later.
“Have they been armed by NATO???”
Not yet, but they surely will be as Russia sets her sights on them.
“Do they have an active war now going on between militias and national armies as did Ukraine and territories of Dombas???”
Yes, Russia has already created and armed insurgencies in Moldova and Georgia just like they did in Ukraine.
You make a good point. However I think the Ukrainian ‘people’ can’t be compared to the Palestinians - although they’re leadership often is - always wanting more of more from other countries and when they get it little actually benefits the people.
Russia has always had military in Moldova and nearby as they have in Georgia.
Israel is also our footprint in the Middle East.
I think much Of the EU is tired of hauling Ukraine up by it’s bootstraps time and again and their utter resistance to change their governance - their mindset is very narrow.
Yes, lets listen to the brilliant Robert Clark, who was so right when he wrote "Hope for Afghanistan"
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hope-afghanistan-robert-clark?trk=public_profile_article_view
Maybe he’s learned something since then, unlike the rest of the neocon warmongers.
No. The time for that was early on when the US and NATO could have still bargained from a position of strength.
Russia doesn't have to agree to anything at this point. They'll be spending time fortifying gains and letting thousands of PMCs rest and train north of Kiev. If Zel, the US and NATO want to dump more into the meat grinder, that's on them. They shot their load and nothing has worked.
Seems the strategy is to suck the west dry, and it's working. There is no reason for the Russians to make ANY concessions. Would not be surprised to see them go for Odessa.
Not with permission of the governments of those sovereign countries though. What’s that called again? Oh right, an invasion.
Sure, that's why Germany just announced its largest military package for Ukraine, and promised support till 2027.
As NATO debates the future for Ukraine, Germany has vowed to surge weapons supplies to Kyiv after signing off on a €700 million ($769 million) military aid package covering air defense equipment, infantry fighting vehicles, main battle tanks and artillery ammunition.
Announced by German defense minister Boris Pistorius on the opening day of the NATO Heads of State Summit, the new package includes two US-made but German-owned Patriot air defense launchers, 40 more Marder infantry fighting vehicles, an additional 25 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, five recovery tanks and 20,000 rounds of artillery ammunition. An “extensive package” of anti-drone capabilities and a Luna intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drones have also been included, according to a German Ministry of Defense statement.
In total, the ministry said, 31 items will be sent to Ukraine from either German Armed Forces stocks or industrial partners.
“It’s another huge package [for Ukraine] and altogether, until 2027, we will spend more than €17 billion ($18.7 billion),” said Pistorius at the NATO Summit. “We are proceeding [with additional funding] because we are convinced it is necessary and the only right thing to do is support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/germany-approves-769m-weapons-package-for-ukraine-clears-huge-boxer-deal-with-australia/
I doubt that will happen although Ukraines Zelensky might try to make it look that way. He’s always popping up with potential threats he can point at Russia for in hopes NATO then will act. ... he too wants to keep Ukraine in this War.
I suspect Biden will keep it going until the election....when he’ll be free from all of it - retiring to his nursing facility vacation somewhere.
Wasn’t it just announced his campaign headquarters are his home in Delaware - HAHAHA!
Send him over with a one way ticket, he can take all of his neo-con war mongering friends with him.
Although I am not sure that your predictions regarding weapon use is correct, you do make the most serious point of the day which is:
Assuming the article is correct, be very aware that desperate men do desperate things.
In this case, we have many desperate men...Biden, Lady Graham and a host of others just as desperate, for other reasons, as the leaders of the Ukraine.
They will very likely make a serious effort o cause WWIII, hoping to draw the US into a position that we must go in full force.
......”the only question is how bad will it get”.....
Well now is bad enough for the Ukrainian people. But I recall in a Ukrainian interview a resident saying early on that war and conflict is what gets new buildings and various other infrastructure benefits - that the citizens all know these conflicts are “normal” for them to acquire what they want they could not hope to get any other way.
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