I do not trust Noem because when she was in the House of Representatives I saw a picture of her appearing to be close friends with disgraced rep. (and closeted homo) Aaaron Schock. The picture told me everything I needed to know. She’s part of the ‘club’ that doesn’t want Trump in it.
If Trump is the nominee, the VP candidate is going to be someone who is a trusted party insider — preferably (from the party’s standpoint) someone who would be flat broke outside of politics and will do whatever they’re told. That will be as true in 2024 as it was in 2016.
If I’m a betting man, I would say — at this point — the best odds for Trump’s running mate would be Kristi Noem.