Posted on 06/26/2023 8:01:14 AM PDT by CA Conservative
There is no denying that Donald Trump still holds the most sway over the Republican base. He is a former president, he is still (in their eyes) being persecuted unfairly by the Democrats and the Biden administration, and he is certainly an attention-grabber.
But there is a major difference between dominating a primary and winning a general election, and the most recent polling seems to show that, for all his support among Republicans, Trump is still not yet favored over Joe Biden in a “Devil You Know vs. Another Devil You Know” election fight.
On Sunday, NBC News released its latest poll on the 2024 election, and the numbers are fairly consistent with what we’ve seen – that Trump is a dominant force in the GOP, but the American public at large is still very hesitant where the former president is concerned. This is the same poll, mind you, that shows nearly three-quarters of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. So if Trump is still struggling to overcome that, well… things aren’t great.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
The imaginary FR GOP appears again.
Sheet.......!!! Like NEVER have I talked to Pollster....
Polls are BS.
People get all hung up on that 81 million number, but that’s not the big issue. In 2020, Trump lost 6 states worth 79 electoral votes by a combined margin of a little over 300,000 votes: Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. To win in 2024, Trump would have to hold onto all the states he won in 2020 and flip states worth at least 34 electors (3 electoral votes were gained by Red states in the 2020 census). He could do that by flipping as few as 2 (PA and either GA or MI) or need as many as 4 (AZ, WI, NV and at least 1 more). So what combination of those states do you see Trump winning in 2024, assuming he could keep all of the states he won last time?
As other people have said, the national polling numbers really don’t mean anything. It is the state numbers, and in particular these 6 states that matter. What steps has Trump taken to address fraud and cheating in these states? Has he announced any plans or initiatives to attack the problem? Has he already started putting together an organization to harvest ballots, get his supporters to vote early, etc., or is he just complaining about how he was cheated?
“That’s right - the only way the GOP can win is if we run a RINO candidate that has a platform that’s 90% Democrat.”
i don’t think that will happen again: conservatives have now tasted the fruits of what a fearless, bona fide conservative firebrand has accomplished vs.the worse than worthlessness of 90% Democrats like the Bushes, and i don’t think we’ll turn out to vote for the McRomBush lesser-of-two evils again ... i know i won’t ...
really, the only way we can signal the RINO Republican party of our extreme displeasure is to show them the consequences of alienating their inherently conservative base ...
Clownhall plays nice to keep their subscribers. I have distrusted them since 2008 when they had that Kathleen Parker dragging Sarah Palin through the mud.
Seeing Kurt Schlicter going about face is disappointing but not surprising coming from Clownhall.
One Clownhall writer claimed that Iowa and Ohio are “safe” now that Trump won those states by good margins. Those states are safe for Trump but not any other Republican.
I was convinced Clownhall was corrupt when they decided that only “VIP subscribers” can post comments. I used to post comments critical of that rag.
Salem Media was responsible for kicking Michael Savage off the air for their controlled opposition hosts like Sean Hannity. They also helped “de-platform” Michelle Malkin because she was calling out the BS from CON INC.
Look, if folks want to believe that Biden out-polls Trump,
let them. We know what really happened in 2020, and it may
happen again. If it would happen against Trump, is there
anyone here that is hair-brained enough to think it wouldn’t
happen against DeSantis?
This poll is idiotic.
Yeah....this is not what the RELIABLE polls show. Look at Big Data Poll, Rasmussen, Trafalgar and a few others. Trump leads Biden by 6-7 points. DeSantis does not lead Biden.
Very astute observations. To answer your question, nothing will be done to affect the 2024 voting apparatus in PA, MI, WI, or AZ, as each of those states are firmly controlled by Democrat governors. Nevada has a newly elected Republican governor, but it remains to be seen if he can affect any change. Georgia is controlled by Republicans at the state level, but since Trump unsuccessfully primaried the sitting governor, he shouldn’t expect much help there.
The only way to overcome these inner city turnout machines is to overwhelm them with large numbers of independents and moderates in the suburbs, similar to what Glenn Youngkin did in Virginia in 2021. Unfortunately, those moderates / independents (especially suburban women) have no use for Trump and his theatrics.
Trump carried Florida by 3%. DeSantis carried it by 19%. It is clear DeSantis has the capacity to expand the GOP vote far beyond what Trump’s core followers alone can deliver.
...and until you creepy Trump cultists comprehend how our elections were changed (thanks to funding from the CARES Act) you will keep crying "fraud" while losing over and over.
The best PROOF is the Fetterman race in PA. I've demonstrated how Fetterman won in June before the election thanks to ballot harvesting which matched the Democrat voter registration numbers in Pennsylvania.
But you keep living in denial-land, blaming voting machines, fraud, truck drivers and courts. The rest of us will actually work to win an election with people like Scott Pressler.
So the reliable polls are the ones you agree with, right? None of the polls are that reliable right now. Heck, most of them are not reliable the day before the election. That’s why it is more informative to look at the rolling averages. That smooths out the errors and biases in individual polls and gives you a feel for the trends. And right now, the trend does not agree with the idea that Trump is 6 points ahead of Biden.
BS!
Yea, Consistently (eye roll)
Desanitis has performed at or below Trump against Biden in the running Morning Cosult tracker for months..
The narrative Desantis does better against Biden is just a flat out lie any more.... may have been true in Jan, it hasn’t been true for a long time.
What a well-reasoned and articulate argument! I stand in awe of your towering intellect and powers of persuasion!
“Trump Dominates the GOP Field, but Consistently Fails in Head-to-Head Polling Against Biden”
Sure he does. When DeSantis’s fall in the polls becomes too great for establishment outlets like Red State to spin, they move onto the “DeSantis is more electable” argument.
No. The reliable polls are the ones that have proven to be more accurate over multiple election cycles. They do not always say what I wish they would. The trend is that Trump is 6-7 points ahead of Biden. That gap has actually grown rather than shrunk in recent months.
Morning Consult is a single polling company. That makes the results subject to whatever biases or methodology errors they may have inherent in their process. That’s why a rolling average of as many different pollsters as possible gives you a better feel for trends.
Perhaps. But I just can't get through my head the notion that an Alzheimer's patient can be elevated to the presidency. It's madness.
He gets away with it because the mainstream media will not call him out on it. That part of the equation will not change.
Well, Tucker Carlson did. Look at where he is today.
The party has to want to prevent that. I don’t think they do
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