How the BRI (China’s Belt and Road Initiative) train took the road to Shangri-La

TheCradle.co ^ | June 12 2023 | Pepe Escobar

[E. Pluribus Unum]

It is important to recognize that the US/NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is simultaneously a war designed to interrupt the progress of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

As we approach the 10th anniversary of the BRI, to be marked by the third Belt and Road Forum later this year in Beijing, it is clear the original Silk Road Economic Belt – announced by President Xi Jinping in Astana, Kazakhstan, in September 2013 – has traveled a long way.

By January this year, 151 nations had already signed up to the BRI: No less than 75 percent of the world’s population that represents more than half of the global GDP. Even an Atlanticist outfit such as the London-based Center for Economic and Business Research admits that the BRI may increase global GDP by a whopping $7.1 trillion a year by 2040, dispensing “widespread” benefits.

Included in the Chinese Constitution since 2018, BRI constitutes the de facto overarching Chinese foreign policy framework all the way to 2049, marking the centenary of the People’s Republic of China.

The BRI advances along several overland connectivity corridors – from the Trans-Siberian to the “middle corridor” along Iran and Turkiye and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) all the way to the Arabian Sea. Meanwhile, on the waterways front, the Maritime Silk Road offers a parallel network from southeast China to the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Swahili Coast, and the Mediterranean Sea.

All that is mirrored by the Russian-driven Northern Sea Route, connecting the eastern and western sides of the Arctic, and reducing to and fro sailing time from Europe to Asia from one month to less than two weeks.

Such a massive Make Trade Not War project, centered on connectivity, infrastructure building, sustainable development, and diplomatic acumen – focusing on...

[gleeaikin]

While BRI if successfully pursued will enhance China’s international recognition/influence, I hope the desire for successful business will also temper China’s aggressive tendencies regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea. It will be interesting to see how China’s foreign policy will develop regarding their interest in parts of Siberia. Especially if Putin is forced to end his military action/war with unfavorable terms.

[ifinnegan]

You sound like Bill Clinton or Kissinger.

[MalPearce]

Don’t forget, Ukraine was seen by China as important to extend BRI into Europe, even to the point of China doing a trade deal with Ukraine while Ukraine was negotiating a parallel deal with the EU. A third deal, with Russia, was already in place.

China WANTED Ukraine to have all three deals.

Russia actually scuppered China’s pitch by persistently acting like a jealous controlling boyfriend over the EU-Ukraine deal.

Then by invading Donbas and Crimea, Russia set back the BRI into Eastern Europe by a decade at the minimum.

And now Russia has completely fubared ALL viable routes for BRI into Western Europe.

Nobody’s going to want to talk to Moscow, and Belarus has been bending over backwards to alienate Europe for thirty years under Lukashenko.

This is why Russia is getting pats on the back but LITERALLY NOTHING MORE from Beijing. Beijing is seriously, seriously pissed off at Putin. It won’t bollock him openly but it’s already added its signature to the list of countries accusing Russia of starting this war, and it’s already talking to the ‘Stans.

Did you see how, apart from Lukashenko, nobody at a recent CSTO summit wanted to stand anywhere near Putin? He’s so toxic that even the Tajikistan leader is getting bolshy.

How have they got the balls to do it? Clue: China’s got their back and Putin can’t do anything about it. This isn’t like Chechnya.

[MalPearce]

(addendum to previous post)

China has led on the peace proposals and offered to help rebuild Ukraine once Russia withdraws.

People, join the dots. For all the anti NATO rhetoric, China wants a reliable BRI gateway into Europe and sees that being Ukraine. But it doesn’t see a Ukraine under Russian control being useful to the plan. They need Ukraine to have independence from Moscow; a second Belarus behind Putin’s new Iron Curtain is antithetical to their ambition.

[Timber Rattler]

Yeah, letting the ChiComs into Ukraine is a multi-level trap.

[tsomer]

Thanks for that description of the situation.
I’ve spent the last hour looking for a map I recall seeing
detailed map of the BRI layout in the Black Sea; Ukraine was depicted as a secondary distribution hub.

The maps I found today show Moscow and Istanbul as the major nodes on the route, with no lines to Ukraine. The route seems to be shifting South. The Chicoms have apparently been redrawing the map since Russia’s invasion.

Russia and China have never been very friendly for very long; their ostensible cooperation, I suspect, is tenuous. Nato’s incursion into Ukraine initially strengthened their ties.

Nevertheless, I’d wager that Putin is one of the few world leaders who sees the economic stranglehold this threatens. Trump understands it too.

But Europe welcomes this garrote around its neck—for the sake of ‘stability.’ So does Biden and the Washington global think-tankers. For them, keeping Trump out is critical, he’d over-turn the apple cart.

If the rift between Putin and China is opening, Russia could find itself fighting on two fronts—the second largely hidden. This may explain Zelinsky’s willingness to go on, and Nato’s continued help. The cavalry is coming.

With one hegemonic power, China, controlling world trade, we’ll be f&^d, but the people presently steering this calamity plan to get rich enough to be in the ruling class.

Anyway, that’s my understanding of things. I’m way out on a limb, so I’ll defer to your obviously superior grasp of the situation.

[MalPearce]

Thanks! I wouldn’t say I’m an expert in it, but I am very well travelled and my job is very closely linked to “horizon scanning” and “hazop”.

Yes it’s going to shift south, which leaves Moscow pretty muuch at the end of a road where they’re buying a lot but exporting nothing remarkable. Because they don’t make anything.

Muscovy is not as important if it’s a terminal node. And redundancy of the BRI network required Muscovy to be a path to somewhere else, not a dead end.

Turkey benefits enormously but unlike Putin, Erdogan knows that a Western partnered independent Ukraine is way better for BRI business in the long term than Belarus 2.0.

[sauropod]

.

[gleeaikin]

Yes, I imagine Xi is Pixxed as hexx. It definitely makes sense for him to approach the Stans. Regarding the Stans, a million more educated and working age young men have now fled Putin’s stupid ego war. A lot of them have gone to the Stans. If this war does not end soon with peacefulness returning to Russia, they are unlikely to return soon either. I saw an interesting report by a 30 something Russian who was sad and lonely, so he sought out other Russian exiles. He now has a coffee group of about 450 self-exiled Russians.

He estimates only about 5% have returned because they just got too homesick. He says maybe another 5% have returned because of family or their business needs in Russia. When asked what would encourage him to return, he said: 1) Putin gone. 2) A reasonable stable government in charge. 3) Most Russians showing they have learned EMPATHY.

It doesn’t look like all that is going to happen any time soon. So, how will these educated, mobile, youngish Russians influence development in the Stans. Will they contribute the kind of energy and creativity that all the immigrants who came to the US have contributed over the years. Will the Chinese find them a resource they can encourage to work with this belt and road initiative?

I think there are enough smart, suspicious minds in Ukraine and Europe that the influence of China there will not be excessively dangerous. I am sure Zelenskyy and Erdogan among others know what they are dealing with and can find a balance of caution and cooperation that may lead to “good” business for both sides of the deals to be negotiated as B&R moves forward.