Posted on 06/08/2023 3:24:43 PM PDT by Mariner
Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive has finally begun.
The Ukrainians are armed with Western weapons, including tanks and armored vehicles, but they are facing tough Russian defenses.
The initial phases of this operation may be the most dangerous and costly, war experts say.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun, kicking off a particularly dangerous time for Ukraine's armed forces, even with its newly acquired arsenal of Western-made tanks, armored vehicles, and other weaponry that has been pouring in over months.
"Amidst a highly complex operational picture, heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front," the British defense ministry said in a Thursday update, noting that "in most areas Ukraine holds the initiative."
Ukrainian forces, including combat units trained in Western tactics and armed with Western weaponry, are pushing against various parts of the front line, The Washington Post reported as The Financial Times reported Ukraine has committed Western-made tanks, which experts have said would signal the start of the offensive.
Kyiv hasn't announced it, as it said it wouldn't, but Ukrainian officials confirmed to ABC News that the counteroffensive is actively underway. An officer and a soldier told NBC the same, and the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank that has carefully tracked Russia's war in Ukraine, said Thursday "the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun."
There appear to be Ukrainian offensive operations against Russian defenses in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts, among other locations along the front lines.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
Moving armor 70 miles without air dominance, into the teeth of the Russian Air Force.
Huevos Rancheros Grande.
But doomed nevertheless.
Breaking through any defensive line is like pressing your finger slowly through a 6 mil contractor bag. Trying to punch it will just hurt your hand. It takes a concerted press, until it finally breaks.
That’s not going to happen in a day.
Here is what I believe is the closest to reality:
Released well before the “counter-offensive” in time to let the establishment know they have to dig in for the long-haul.
A.) Politico
Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say
U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decade...”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563
Problem is, here is what may await the west:
B.) 1/2 Germany would go into recession with Russian energy embargo - minister
Reuters
April 27, 2022
2/2 Germany’s slipped into recession and everyone should be worried
May 26, 2023
According to Denys they’ve already suffered a set back. No location given. But several tanks (including Leopard 2) and armored vehicles said to be destroyed.
Yet another war to have white people kill other white people.
And on top of that there’s this:
https://youtube.com/shorts/NCvs—LTmlQ?feature=share
And this doesn’t include all of the Asian, South East Asia, Middle Eastern, and Central and South American countries that want to join BRICS.
Business Insider vs. Gateway. Whom would you bet on for trust?
There’s always that Brit one-not worth remembering.
Destruction of the AFU column with Leopard 2 tanks
Today, footage of repulsing yesterday’s enemy attack in the Zaporozhye direction appeared on the Web. A column of about 10 tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles advanced on Russian positions at the Rabotino-Verbovoye line from Malaya Tokmachka, but was stopped by fire from the RF Armed Forces.
Part of the equipment was blown up by mines and was abandoned by the crews. Others were hit by artillery and ATGM crews in forest plantations along country roads and in fields.
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1666805820997394440
A hint about the Russian strategy is coming with videos taken from Ukrainian drones, of great piles of antitank mines, some fraction of which were then blown up by those drones.
Mines are fairly cost effective, and for the hundreds destroyed, we might assume that 10 to 50 times that amount weren’t destroyed.
Since a big chunk of Russian armor has already been attacked, this creates a vulnerability to Ukrainian armor. So mines would be a good way to counteract this threat.
Yes a German recession is a big effin’ deal.
Time is on Russia’s side.
It won't take long to find out if we are seeing the
Cassius Clay rope-a-dope or the Joe Fraizer pound-em-down.
....wait .... I think my pop corn is burning ...
leopards and tigers and bears! oh my!
If you want to know what the establishment is pondering, it’s NYT, WAPO, Reuters, and Politico.
“Destruction of the AFU column with Leopard 2 tanks”
Who cares. We are the Arsenal of Democracy!
So, take that Putin!!! We Neocons will NEVER be defeated!!!
Hmmm...wasn’t that 80 years ago? Come to think of it, we WERE the Arsenal of Democracy.
Oh well, win some, lose some. Perhaps, if we ask real nicely, China will build us a boatload of Main Battle Tanks?
Hmmm, oh yeah, the Neocons TOTALLY PISSED OFF China by goading them over Taiwan...so no hope there.
Maybe it’s best we try to find a way to end this war?
...just speculating
Spain’s economy is going downhill, others aren’t doing well, France is a boiling pot where the citizens know that pensions are being cut back on to keep the money available to illegals (who have a 40% unemployed rate,), and it may only be the UK that staves off a recession due to Brexit.
The horrendous Ukie losses need to be mentioned. As of a day ago, 52 Tanks, 220 armored vehicles ( video confirmation of US M113’s, Bradley’s, Strykers, etc) , scores of US Humvees, French wheeled tanks,…..and the count is increasing. The most current clobbering shows 79 tanks, including a few Leopard 2’s…
As in the past, Ivan is giving great effort into hunting down the collective West’s welfare weapons, with great success. The “ reduction” begins in Western Lvov areas and the closer to the Eastern front intensifies.
No less than 60 Ukie ammo and arms depots across Ukraine have been obliterated in the past three weeks-many containing further Armor that was set aside for their spring, summer, whenever “ Great Offensive”.
It is clear the Ukies are spent, and even if managing a breakthrough, will be unable to support it, supply it, exploit it or hold it- simply unsustainable. A simple addition, subtraction equation.
Do remember Vlads prior service call up of 350,000 men, less than 70,000 have been deployed to front lines....that leaves by conservative estimates at least another 200,000 plus to manage any breakthrough.
“and even if managing a breakthrough, will be unable to support it, supply it, exploit it or hold it- simply unsustainable”
I’ve been wondering WTF their logic is...what they think they’ll do IF they do break through.
Because they certainly know those facts too.
It’s definitely not going well for Ukraine, thus far.
davydov is perhaps the most consistent Ukr Cheerleader…well naturally as he is a Ukrainian. His videos are ALL 100% pro-Ukr and anti-Russ. They are also all unanimously about Russ getting its ass kicked.
So to say I was shocked when I saw HIM post this today is an understatement:
Update from Ukraine | The Counterattack Start is not good | Leopard-2 Convoy was Ambushed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N85cRT5JWvc
“and even if managing a breakthrough, will be unable to support it, supply it, exploit it or hold it- simply unsustainable”
I’ve been wondering WTF their logic is...what they think they’ll do IF they do break through.
————-
Look to Artymovsk ( Bakmut) horrendous losses, their losses torpedoed any meaningful offensive.For those actually following we can look to the
Operation Bakhmut Meat Grinder results:
1. 6.5 thousand foreign mercenaries of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed.
2. 10 thousand units of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.
3. 35 thousand units of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were taken as trophies.
4. More than 50 aircraft and helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.
5. 55,000 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed.
6. 85 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were wounded.
7. Such a large percentage of the dead was due to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were almost surrounded and did not have time to take out the wounded.
8. PMC Wagner has also losses, but several times less.
9. 10 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were completely destroyed and deprived of combat capability.
10. 21 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated and withdrawn to the rear for reorganization.
11. All these brigades were preparing for the offensive but instead of an offensive, they were defeated in Bakhmut.
Who was decimated in Artymovsk ( Bakmut)::
Brigades:
45th Brigade
43rd Brigade
26th Brigade
28th Brigade
62nd Brigade
63rd Brigade
53rd Brigade
60th Brigade
24th Brigade
57th Brigade
30th Brigade
Advance Rubizh Brigade
Advance Azov Brigade
Advance Uragan Brigade
Advance Spartan Brigade
109th Brigade
116th Brigade
119th Brigade
241st Brigade
93rd Brigade
77th Brigade
46th Brigade
4th Brigade
17th Brigade
61st Brigade of Jaegers
Special Forces and Spetsnaz Regiments:
5th Assault Regiment
8th Regiment of Special Forces
Kraken Battalions:
122nd Battalion
68th Battalion
214th OPFOR Battalion
49th Rifle Battalion
15th Mountain Assault Battalion
Omega
Border Guard Donetsk
8th Regiment of the UDAR UAVs:
Shershen
Adam
Karlsen
Terra
Skala
Madyar
Khartia
Kep
Seneka
WASP Legions:
Dudaev Battalion
Georgian Legion
Mansur Battalion
Shamil Battalion
Gonor
Normandy Legion
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.