Victory for Ukraine is defeating the Russians militarily in Ukraine, pushing them out of the country, removing Russia’s capability to reinvade by economic and military means and securing its border.
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Exactly why they have no path to victory, they are now 100 percent a welfare state, they have no means of support, little income generation, and as with most that are reliant on welfare, it will take decades to pull out of the cycle.
Pulling out of the welfare cycle with someone else’s money ( debt) never ends well for the debtor OR the creditor, especially when the creditor is bankrupt.
If you haven’t read the figures, Vlad is generating much income from his vast resources, resources that the West needs. The bonus-Ukraine’s Donbass area pre war generated 70 percent plus of Ukraine’s national income.
That said, Vlad isn’t leaving the ethnic Russian provinces, his population or Congress ( Duma) will not allow it. In fact, the cries to take Odessa, a city Katrina founded in the 1700’s, are increasing every day.
The Ukies are toast for decades to come.
delta7:
"The bonus-Ukraine’s Donbass area pre war generated 70 percent plus of Ukraine’s national income." I've seen that number 70% trotted out before, and wondered where it came from.
Turns out, it's totally bogus, and we know that because:
- When Vlad the Invader annexed Crimea in 2014, the result was Ukraine's GDP declined about 10%.
- When the Russians again invaded, in 2022, the result was Ukraine's GDP declined about 30%.
As of today, Russians occupy around 14% of Ukrainian territory, causing a combined 40% reduction in GDP = 10% for Crimea, 30% for eastern Ukraine.
But how much of this was caused by the loss of territories and how much by the disruptive effects of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and the consequent flood of refugees away from war zones?
My guess is half & half.
So, I think it's fair to say the Donbas region is important economically but claims that 70% of Ukraine's GDP comes from the Donbas are certainly wildly exaggerated.
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