Posted on 05/05/2023 8:28:21 AM PDT by golux
Recent predictions have turned out wrong. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said 2022 would be a whopper, "predicting above-average hurricane activity [this] year – which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season." It wasn’t. In fact, in terms of combined frequency, intensity, and duration, 2022 represented a noteworthy "low mark" in the past 42 years of all hurricane occurrences on the planet.
Talk of seven "above-average" seasons was the real whopper. The eleven years from 2006-2017 show an unprecedented period in which no major hurricane made continental landfall, and yet the "average" data set was selected to comprise these years. As an analogy, imagine rolling dice 100 times and getting a predictably median average, with slightly decreasing set averages over the course of the hundred rolls. The news, were it news, would be the slight decrease. But say the last 15 or so rolls – the last 15% of the test – include a run so low as to set records, followed by an upwards spike at the very end. It would be disingenuous to cut out 85% of the original sample, and to include only the low rolls and declare the last spike consecutively "above average." Yet, that is akin to what was said and amplified in the news media.
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Actual, recorded data sets offer insight into the reliability of long-term trend forecasting based on computer modeling projections and extrapolations, in which programmers can customize predictions by adjusting the weight of many variables. Terror-inducing forecasts and widely accepted "trends" make for sensational headlines, but they are, of late, wrong.
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Smart mariners and coastal residents need to be prepared for the worst, both in terms of actual weather and the loss of critical trust in forecasters.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
Climate models are infallible?
I’ve got to go back and find it, but, some talking head said the actual weather was wrong because it didn’t match the models.
Garbage in...garbage out.
Just look out of your window; now you’re more accurate than the so-called ‘weather forecasters’.
The ‘European Model’ is much more accurate than the ‘American Model’, as far as software goes. Why? I don’t know.
Torcon anyone? Nothing but mostly clap trap.
Ditto the long term outlook.
Does anyone accuracy check any of these forecasts?
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