“Standard formula for an offensive is to outnumber the enemy 5 to 1. Does Ukraine have those sorts of numbers?”
Good questions. Ukraine has about 1 million men under arms, Russia has about 600,000. Over the entire front no one has an edge, but the front is 1000 miles. The goal of any Ukraine offensive would be to hit with 200K soldiers an area defended but 20K Russians.
I imagine the Ukraine strategy to do this will take three parts:
1) Make a lot of noise about parts of the border they don’t plan to attack. We have seen them do this with Transnistria, Kherson, and Bryansk. All of those moves have forced Russian defenders to redeploy to those regions.
2) Feints. Launch actual attacks on the front to get Russia to commit its reserves
3) Offensive: Once Russia troops are out of position make use of inside lines and Ukraine’s greater mobility to hit the weakest part of the Russian line. Breakthrough, and then roll over the Russian fortifications from the side and rear.
LOL, only if you are fighting the napoleonic war. Maneuver warfare does not require mass assaults and suicidal human waves. This is something Wagner has apparently never learned, otherwise they would not be bogged down in Donetsk for 10 months.