Posted on 04/20/2023 4:43:40 AM PDT by FarCenter
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AUKUS faces several hurdles.
First, clear objectives are needed for the project's successful completion but these have not been established. The U.S. sees AUKUS as part of its plan to counter China's economic and geopolitical rise. For the U.K., the project is part of its "special relationship" with the U.S. and relevance as a global power. Both countries stand to earn substantial export income.
Australia's strategic objectives oscillate between deterrence and protecting vital shipping routes. Ironically, AUKUS expensively duplicates, in part, the existing 1951 ANZUS treaty whereby the U.S. must theoretically act to meet any common danger if Australia's territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened.
AUKUS is simultaneously being promoted as an economic opportunity. However, the projected 20,000 direct jobs to be created over the next 30 years at a cost of AU$18 million is less than the 25,000 positions needed to absorb new workforce entrants each month. Improbable notions about the SSNs helping create a defense export business have been touted.
Second, the planning of AUKUS has seemed rushed from inception. Confusion over the disposal of nuclear waste, which will be Australia's responsibility, is already proving controversial. Time and cost estimates may prove over-optimistic.
Third, the project, with its trilaterally developed next-generation design, involves unproven technologies. This choice is odd given a French offer to Australia of off-the-shelf nuclear submarines.
British physicist Robert Watson-Watt's words may haunt the SSN: "Give me the third-best technology. The second best won't be ready in time. The best will never be ready."
Emergent technologies such as unmanned underwater vehicles or new anti-submarine defenses may render the SSNs redundant in any case.
Fourth, the U.S. and U.K. currently lack available capacity to supply the submarines. Australia has a skills shortage and limited naval engineering capabilities, certainly in relation to nuclear propulsion.
Fifth, a phased process involving new designs manufactured at different facilities controlled by three different partners with differing objectives is likely to prove difficult to successfully manage and coordinate.
Sixth, the project spans decades: The U.K. is to deliver the first SSN in the late 2030s with the first SSN built in Australia to be completed in the early 2040s. Changes in elected governments and administrations will mean inevitable alterations in project scope that will undermine its chances of success.
Finally, intervening events -- the perennial "unknown unknowns" -- are likely to complicate the enterprise.
I'm sure they could recommend a "really" good deal with China.
It seems that it helps Australia and even more importantly helps us.
LOL, sorry, should have had more coffee.
If I were Australian, I would be very wary of entering into any pact with an aging super power. Especially one that is teetering on the edge and in danger of becoming a totalitarian state and has recently has a reputation of ‘stiffing’ allies.
“”If I were Australian, I would be very wary of entering into any pact with an aging super power. Especially one that is teetering on the edge and in danger of becoming a totalitarian state and has recently has a reputation of ‘stiffing’ allies.””
As an American I want Australia to remain an ally.
Australia is,sadly,basically nothing more than one of China’s many mining colonies. When push comes to shove it’s hard to imagine her doing much to counter the determination of Mao’s loyal successors to rule the Pacific.
Australians overwhelmingly prefer tying in with the distant "ageing superpower" rather than a belligerent next door "potential superpower"
Allying with China is a no-go. Mainland China is like Ming China - it doesn't see "allies" just "vassals" - and, unlike Ming China, it treats its vassals badly
Australia is busy promoting a Quad alliance to let China think twice: Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India. This also has the USA and now the Philippines coming in
I very much disagree with any depiction or suggestion that Australia is any type of Chinese colony. I do agree that our trade is far too tied up with China currently - our main export is resources and they want to purchase them, and we need to diversify our export base, and hopefully find other buyers as well.
But if China comes to dominate the Pacific, it won’t be because Australia has simply complied with those wishes. It’ll be because a nation of twenty-five million people cannot stand alone against one fifty times larger, and that failure will happen because others who could have done more than we ever could, didn’t do their part.
In essence, AUKUS is Australia making a statement to the two nations we regard as most likely to be willing and able to help us if we need it, that we will help them.
The big question for us is whether we can rely on two nations who we have consistently helped in times of trouble for at least the last seventy years to come to our aid if we need it.
If we can, then we have a chance, even if conflict comes with China.
If we can’t - then we likely have no chance. I hope we’d still fight rather than go down placidly, but, frankly, if we’re placed in that situation, it will be because we’ve been betrayed.
Thanks FRiend !
For us here in Oz, to say likewise would be an epic understatement.
As wonderful as daily life in Australia must be, when the global sabers start rattling the more aware Australians must get nervous when looking at the maps.
Australians must find comfort in news like this.
“US military’s footprint is expanding in northern Australia to meet a rising China”
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-09-08/australia-military-construction-projects-china-7251762.html
Perhaps I went a bit too far with that comment. However...true story:
A few years ago we went to South Africa to see some rhinos (the four legged ones,not the spineless American variety). Driving from Johannesburg to Kruger National Park we were stopped for almost 20 minutes at a railroad crossing.
We asked our guide...a great guy,Afrikanner,and proud to be one...what the deal was and he said "oh,that's coal heading to China via a port in Mozambique". He went on to explain that China is huge in SA in many,many ways. He didn't sound too thrilled by that. And we found huge Chinese influence in Zambia and Kenya too. China is clearly trying to colonize Africa...at least parts of it.
It'll be because a nation of twenty-five million people cannot stand alone against one fifty times larger, and that failure will happen because others who could have done more than we ever could, didn't do their part.
Agreed...entirely. The US,under Rat Party control at least,will do nothing to counter China's efforts at domination.If you follow US politics at all you'll find that Biden,"The Big Guy",is owned by China...as shown by "the laptop from hell".
I can't speak for Britain but from this side of the Atlantic Britain seems to be in decline as well...both politically and militarily.
And BTW...if you have some free time pick up a book called "Laptop From Hell" by your fellow Aussie,Miranda Devine. Scary doesn't even begin to describe it.
Things are looking grim pretty much everywhere these days. Each day brings a little more fear and a lot more gratitude to God.
Recently there was a story about a Rat Party Congressman who was found to be sleeping with a Chinese spy. There also was a recent story about a Rat Party Senator having had a Chinese spy as a chauffeur...for years.
If you Aussies were to send over your sweet young ladies to engage in pillow talk with our Rat politicians maybe things would be different. Ditto your middle aged chauffeurs!
But seriously,I suspect that you're correct.
I've said for years that the biggest mistake,by far,that the world's civilized nations (US/Canada/Europe/Australia/Japan) made about 30 years ago was to open their ports to Chinese made goods. If they hadn't Chinese cities would still feature nothing but drab Soviet style buildings and their rush hours would feature one million (plus) bicycles (which was what I saw during my first visit in 1981).
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