Posted on 04/15/2023 6:57:33 PM PDT by SoConPubbie
Former President Donald Trump holds a substantial lead in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, holding almost twice the support as his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in FiveThirtyEight's national polling average before next year's presidential primaries.
Trump received just less than half of the national vote on average, followed by DeSantis with about one-in-four voters:
FiveThirtyEight notes that although the first primaries start in about nine months, "According to our research, national primary polls conducted the year before the election are reasonably predictive of the eventual nominee."
The organization found that candidates who poll above 30% support nationally have a higher chance of becoming the eventual nominee and that this chance rises with higher support. Conversely, candidates who garner less than 20% have been very unlikely to win the nomination, and those polling under 10% "are usually doomed."
FiveThirtyEight used 14 polls from various pollsters, including YouGov, Morning Consult, Ipsos, and Premise, to calculate the national average, which will be updated throughout the election season.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
After Trump gets clobbered, can we please not make him our front-runner for 2028?
Honestly unless we figure out a way to attract the Gen Z group who now make up the largest voting group, we won’t need to worry about either one.
I’m going back to contention that DeSantis is not going to run. I almost changed my mind a week ago but, I think he’s testing the waters but probably for a 28 run. Besides, Floridians love the guy and it would really be a slap in the face if he left to go run a presidential race.
But as we all know Tomorrow Never Knows, seriously. We are not in control of our destiny lots of people wake up hop in the car to go to work and die. Some people don’t even wake up.
Contingency planning is probably better than being caught flatfooted.
President Trump has all the right enemies.
Lots of very nice folks don't know much about himn, as of yet.
The election is over 1.5 years away, and the primaries happen over a year away.
The debates will be among the most-watched ever, and for good reason.
And for perspective, Trump will never stop saying foolish things.
Ever.
And yet that is the very same Trump who pulled millions of new voters exactly because he was an authentic non-politician, the exact opposite of the lawyer / politician DeSantis.
2024 shaping up to be a very good year for Democrats.
After Trump gets clobbered, can we please not make him our front-runner for 2028?
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If we lose in 2024, there won’t be anything left.
True, but let’s be honest. Trump has a lock on no less than 30% of GOP primary voters. They will not be swayed, and they do not care about winning elections or advancing conservatism.
They have pledged fealty to Donald Trump and they will attack anyone who stands in the way of the coronation that they believe he’s entitled to.
We’re seeing it here in spades.
I agree. In fact, I predict a catastrophe so complete that the Democrats not only hold onto the White House, the Senate, and take back the House, but they do so in numbers that will allow them to put thirteen justices on the Supreme Court.
You honestly believe that Trump is going to lose?
I believe that the military has captured all of the fraud and corruption and is waiting for the right moment to use it and America wakes up and Trump returns to rightful power.
There is no other candidate that can defeat the globalist Deep State machine.
“I believe that the military has captured all of the fraud and corruption and is waiting for the right moment to use it and America wakes up and Trump returns to rightful power.”
The term “delusional” doesn’t even begin to cover your condition.
Not as delusional as thinking we still have "free and fair" elections and voting for a non-Trump GOP candidate will miraculously return us to Constitutional principles.
Did you ever notice the FBI, deep state, lying media, corrupt Republicans/Democrats, Hollywood, Communist, Globalist, BLM, Soros, Anfifa, and DESANTIS supporters all want to get rid of Trump?
Seems a bit odd.
I love these people!
They remind me of those heady days back in 2009 when the Supreme Court was going to send Obama to Gitmo for his ineligibility and install Sarah Palin as the nation's rightful president.
What a hoot!
There's one woman here, I can't recall her handle, who truly believes that Trump is running the country and Joe Biden is a deep-fake media creation. She pops up on these threads from time to time.
Maybe then we should blame Trump for gas prices and inflation?
I dunno...
The guy I miss the most was Meatspace who promised in multiple and very articulate posts that Trump would win California, New York, and Illinois in landslides back in 2020. Turned out he was just trolling us for LOLs and got the zot.
“Not as delusional as thinking we still have “free and fair” elections and voting for a non-Trump GOP candidate will miraculously return us to Constitutional principles.”
Fair point. But...to think that the US Military is going to “make things right”...? Sorry, but you might want to ask someone in your family to pinch you, cause you’re dreaming. Come to think of it, it might require a sledgehammer.
From my perspective, there is only one remedy to the current situation we’re in. But we’re not supposed to talk about stuff like that on the internet.
Yeah, I have someone in my family that actually believes all of the BS and lies the evangelical frauds are spewing these days. They’re still promising that Trump will be “reinstated” to office.
You can’t reason with the unreasonable, so I stopped trying.
Has DeSantis declared his candidacy?
So remind me again who's president right now?
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