Putin is losing either way. And you are right that he can’t give up or he gets hung.
Russians are complaining. The colleagues I have in Moscow, well we don’t discuss the war or politics, and i suspect they are lightly pro Putin, anyway, even they are saying things like “our leaders need to re evaluate”, of course no mention of the Tsar, no mo. But even that statement is pretty surprising coming from them.
The longer the war drags on, the more Russians will be like 1917.
200,000 dead in Ukraine so far. In WWI, around 1.8 million. So far, Putin isn't mobilizing boys from St. Petersburg and Moscow. If he does that, the Russian people may revolt they did in 1917.