What is the breaking point for Russia, which gets most of its national income from selling its oil, that it can no longer sustain the Ukraine invasion or itself, for that matter?
What if we went full on back into drilling pumping and fracking and put more oil on the world markey, lowering the price? Couls we not defeat Russia in Ukraine that way without risking nuclear war over quibbles on which weapons we send to help?
There is the breaking point for “Russia”, the breaking point for ordinary Russians and the breaking point for Putin and his coterie.
The breaking point for urban Russians (a large % of their population lives in St Petersburg and Moscow) has past. They see jobs and money going down. Then the mobilization (which didn’t hit them too hard) and they are close to boiling point. But will they rebel? I don’t think so, not yet
The breaking point for Russia was March 2022 — when they failed at plan A for reducing Ukraine to vassaldom. That burst the bubble of “Russian military strength”, and destroyed the market for Russian military goods. Also it pushes them to being a vassal captive oil and gas supplier to China (giving China a 40% discount)
For Putin the breaking point was, again, in March — now he has no way out, no way to keep the crown