[ClearCase_guy]

I keep getting the feeling that this will be over soon. Russia will take the land it wants — a big strategic chunk of Ukraine but maybe not all of Ukraine. Ukraine will say “It could have been worse. So ... we won.” And the US will say, “Ukraine has declared victory, so another epic win for our side.”

[pierrem15]

My guess is that the Ukrainians will push the Russians back to roughly their Feb 2022 starting positions. Newly acquired longer range Ukrainian artillery is already reaching Mariupol, so the Russians now have nowwhere to hide in south Kherson and Zaporizhia. This is prep for an assault to retake southern Zaporizhia, split south Kherson off from Donetsk and roll up Russian forces in southern Kherson.

Assuming this happens, a peace deal will be reached including Ukraine entry into NATO and a fast track into the EU.