Posted on 02/22/2023 9:14:30 PM PST by Red6
I couldn’t agree more.
And Japan. They are exempt from sanctions.
And. No dollars.
If you’re trying to suggest that we’ve been fed a stream of lies, while I’ve heard that our intents are to destroy their economy, I’ve never heard that it’s working. The GDP is shrinking, but reports have been very consistent in saying that this decline is far from the cataclysm that some had expected or hoped for.
Funny... the ACTUAL headline to the story you post is that Russian oil exports have jumped to their highest level IN A MONTH. That in no way refutes the claim that Russia has cut back on energy production this year. It only says that there was a shorter-term but temporary dip amidst the longer trend. The truth is that Russian energy production is down, but not calamitously.
GAS exports have fallen 45%, including exports to China. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-pipeline-gas-exports-europe-collapse-post-soviet-low-2022-12-28/
And they fell ANOTHER 30% in January since December.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-piped-gas-exports-europe-falls-30-january-new-lows-data-2023-01-31/
VesselValue says that Russian companies bought up 10-12% of the world’s tanker fleet in 2022.
How can you guess how much oil and for what price are they shipping once all the trade is bypassing Lloyd’s and SWIFT?
Global oil trade is now a big black market, where the West is losing profit and influence.
One of the fascinating consequences of the Ukraine War is how the West has isolated itself from the rest of the world. The response from Latin America, Africa, India, China, and everyone else to the US and Europe is “you’ve lost your minds.”
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And along with it the trust of more than half of the world’s population. Getting it back will be no small order. The more bull-headed Biden is the more he isolates the Western World.
"Russia's announced cut of 500,000 bpd in production for March could be a sign that Moscow may be struggling to place all of its barrels, or “an attempt to shore up oil prices,” the international agency said.A short term spike in exports can not compensate for a long term production cut. The long term effect is unchanged. Russia's energy production and revenues are going to take a huge hit this year.
All that will happen as a result of insurers not insuring shipping of Russian oil/gas is a lot of the maritime insurance industry that up til now has been dominated by the Europeans will now move elsewhere.
If its possible to make money by insuring ships - and it is - somebody will always be willing to do it.
You realize a lot of Russia’s oil and gas exports are off the books, right?
I wouldn’t count on the “official” numbers to be accurate. They trans-ship a lot of that oil and gas through places like Turkey, India, etc which then claim that oil and gas is not Russian so as to avoid sanctions. The Russians are still collecting the vast majority of the money for that oil and gas once its sold.
That may be true, but shipping oil in smaller older tankers is expensive. Regardless of cap Russia is selling their oil at less than the 60$ and the cost to shipping is more so even less profit. Russian budget is based on 70$ per barrel.
Their own report shows VAT down 45%, income tax revenue negative 1 billion they are sending rebates instead of collecting, govt spending for internal security(always a good sign lol ) and war through the roof while spending on healthcare infrastructure and education down
The 120 billion for 2022 includes price spikes during that year and those are gone at least for now
Sanction busting is nothing new but what goes along with that is higher prices and less supply.
The big one is refined petroleum production. EU was by far the largest buyer of those products. China and India are not interested in refined products and even if they do the volume those ships can haul, the time and cost to do so will mean Russia will not make much if any off of the sales. Russia has 25 refineries if volume drops what then. You can’t just shut down refineries, wells and pipelines like turning off a light switch
So do I think Russia will collapse economically soon? No they have a large rainy day fund and gold reserves, but they are burning through them at a high rate and with the cost of the war going up and up, lots of Russians dying….
They idea that they are not hurting, well I don’t agree. Their own reported numbers are bad, and if that is what they reported I imagine they are worse or maybe they are trolling us lol
Time will tell
I am sure that Russia is moving as much as they can through black market…, but the infrastructure to move the volumes they need to maintain is not there. And by definition that oil is being sold at a vast discount so the idea that they are getting the vast amount of money I seriously doubt.
Ultra super tankers don’t grow on trees and the volume russia needs to move regardless of price so their oil infrastructure does not collapse(you can’t just shut down pipelines, wells, and refineries easily without major problems) is great and at the moment they are not
Time will tell
There have been articles posted showing how they are moving a significant volume through Turkey. The oil and gas is then claimed to have come from Azerbaijan and sold to the world market at full price. Turkey skims a bit off the top which is a nice little earner for them. Russia gets most of the money. India is doing the same as are others.
I’m sure Russia is having to bear higher costs to ship rather than send through a pipeline and I’m sure they have to grease the appropriate palms in 3rd countries to hide where the oil is really coming from.....but I have little doubt they are still deriving enormous revenues from the sale of oil and gas. If there are willing sellers and willing buyers, there will always be a market no matter what hurdles anyone tries to put in the way.
Watching our Neocon Masters continually TRIPPING OVER THEMSELVES trying to punish Russia would be funny as hell, except that they’re also marching us towards a Nuclear War, due to their failure after failure.
Even your map OVERSTATES the ‘World Community’ as it shows Alaska, Canada, and Australia as huge countries, when they’re barely populated.
...but it still gets the point across.
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