Bipartisan U.S. Congressional delegation visits Taiwan... again

Should we poke the bear or poke the tiger? Why not both? On the same day that Joe Biden went to Ukraine, a congressional delegation was touching down in Taiwan to visit with governmental and industry leaders. Now both Moscow and Beijing have something new to complain about.

The bipartisan delegation to Taiwan was a small one and did not include the new Speaker of the House. Democrats Ro Khanna, Jake Auchincloss, and Jonathan Jackson were joined by Texas Republican Tony Gonzales. Khanna and Auchincloss are both members of the new House select committee studying economic competition with China and all four of them are working on expanding America’s semiconductor industry. They are meeting with Taiwanese leaders of that industry during the trip. (Associated Press)

Khanna tried to play down the expected backlash from the Chinese over this trip, telling reporters that the visit is “in no way provocative of China.” He went on to emphasize that the United States is still “seeking ultimately, peace in the region.” I somehow doubt Xi Jinping will see it that way.

You Si-kun, the head of Taiwan’s legislature, was far less reserved in his remarks. He was responding to a recent statement issued by a Chinese foreign policy official who said that Taiwan “has never been a country and will not be a country in the future.”

Mr. You’s comments are precisely the type of provocation that we’ve been trying to avoid with our complicated policy regarding Taiwan. The United States has long maintained that we support the “One China” policy while treating Taiwan as an allied nation in all but name. Having a senior Taiwanese official come out and openly declare that they are “an independent, sovereign nation” is just the type of declaration that may eventually push China toward military action if only to save face.

Only a few years ago, I would have said that China is mostly putting its own spin on the Taiwan situation and they would never dare to openly invade the island. The economic damage they would certainly experience in response from the global community would be too great. But then again, I really didn’t think Russia would invade Ukraine either, so what do I know?

As we’ve discussed here on more occasions than I can count, we are not ready for a war with China and we won’t be until we can get the arms industry back up to wartime production levels. And that will likely take several years. But we need to be ready to face the possibility that we’ll be fighting a proxy war on two fronts if China does cross the strait in the next year or two. We simply can’t rule out that possibility.

Ukraine ping

Somewhat tangentially Ukraine-related commentary by a recently discharged naval aviator:

[Like the ’91 Gulf War Ukraine is going to be a system shock to the mass-formation style militaries of the world. Invasions are damn difficult and likely to fail, but people get the wrong impression because the USA does it so often and is never stopped by military means. So others think they can too, they don’t get that “They aren’t that guy” to quote a meme.

A third tier ANG pilot gets 3x the flight hours than an elite RVS pilot every year, ~240ish for a USAF driver and ~70 for RVS. Not to mention ~200 hifi simulator hours vs 0. The disparity is similar though not as bad when looking at the PLAAF. People get it twisted because our occupations often fail, but overlook that we dumpstered the 4th largest army in the world in 100 hours or conquered Afghanistan with less than 200 men on the ground. America’s a sick horse in many ways, but our conventional military power (which we pay dearly for) is terrifying. The threat of facing that power in an already fraught operation like amphibious assault into a heavily fortified island nation has to look much less attractive to the Chinese after the much more experienced Russian troops failed in the flat plains of neighboring Ukraine.

Many American officers WANT China to f*** up and make a move against Taiwan and give us a war justification against the PRC. It might be the only way to escape the slow economic strangulation the PRC is forcing on us, by brutalizing their industrial capacity with PGMs and rewinding the clock 50 years of our comparative economic strength.

Distant maritime intervention at Malacca would halt all sea going trade, crippling their economy. US 7th, 3rd, and eventually 5th fleet would deploy to Taiwan, using the island as a shield for the CVNs, forcing PLAAF aircraft to fly through the Taiwanese SAM net before they even get to try their luck against the lethal AEGIS system and carrier CAP. Meanwhile US fighters would be in friendly MEZ until only a minute or less before time-on-target. Every Chinese shipyard would be turned to scrap, then the airfields, then the pipelines, then systematically the heavy industry.

I think cooler heads in the Chinese Politburo haven’t drunk the coolaid and game war game out the situation in their mind, especially with the new data point of the Ukraine war, and realize it would be an unmitigated disaster for them.]

In other words, much of the defeatist rhetoric re China over Taiwan in the here and now can be summed up in verse: “Will you walk into my parlour?” said the Spider to the Fly”.

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