Posted on 02/17/2023 7:23:41 AM PST by SaxxonWoods
So, in summary, no recession. "This means that the real question about monetary policy in the U.S. this year is not when the Fed will start easing. It is whether the Fed will decide in the summer to tighten substantially further, or to accept permanently higher inflation--in either case precipitating a second plunge in bond and equity prices," says Kaletsky.
(Excerpt) Read more at glossary.morningstar.com ...
One BIG REASON is that by blowing up the Nordstream Pipeline, we’re assured of huge LNG exports to Europe, and at nice high prices.
So Europe gets the recession, not us. Gotta love it!!!
Nukes are soon to be flying, but there will be no recession. Awesome!
If real growth is -8% and inflation +10% that means GNP is up 2% so no recession.
“Aside from the fact that we are already in a recession . . .”
GDP is positive and unemployment is below 4%.
That’s not a recession. We are just in high inflation. Inflation and economic growth happen together often.
The link produced this:
502 - Web server received an invalid response while acting as a gateway or proxy server.
There is a problem with the page you are looking for, and it cannot be displayed. When the Web server (while acting as a gateway or proxy) contacted the upstream content server, it received an invalid response from the content server.
So I can’t respond to the article other than I DISAGREE.
Changing it’s definition does not change its Reality. FJB.
Dad-gum it. I’ll try to find a link that works thanks.
Link doesn’t want to work so here’s the article:
Stocks look like ending the week on the back foot after a recent batch of stronger than expected economic data triggered further hawkish Fed chatter.
This is not a great scenario for the “pessimistic bulls”. That’s what Gavekal Research’s chairman and chief economist Anatole Kaletsky calls those investors who consider themselves “cautiously pessimistic because they anticipate an early U.S. recession”.
In fact, he adds, they are actually “wildly bullish” because they hope any economic contraction will help to swiftly trim inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by the summer. This in turn will spark a rebound in both bonds and stocks to the range enjoyed before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Unfortunately for this tribe, a U.S. recession in the next few months is almost inconceivable, reckons Kaletsky, and if anything the economy is likely to pick up speed later in 2023.
Here’s the 10 reasons he believes this to be the case. That’s a long list, so presenting some of Kaletsky’s text as as bullet points is necessary.
So, in summary: no recession. “This means that the real question about monetary policy in the U.S. this year is not when the Fed will start easing. It is whether the Fed will decide in the summer to tighten substantially further, or to accept permanently higher inflation—in either case precipitating a second plunge in bond and equity prices,” says Kaletsky.
Markets
Stocks were in line to extend Thursday’s losses with S&P 500 futures down 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 3.8 basis points to 3.900% as investors continued to fear inflation will remain stubbornly high. The dollar index added 0.6% and gold fell 1.1%.
For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.
The buzz
China Renaissance shares plunged by more than 50% at one stage on Friday after the company revealed its chief executive and majority shareholder Bao Fan has gone missing.
Traders will be eyeing the index of leading economic indicators for January due at 10 a.m. We’ll also hear from two more Fed officials, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman, ahead of the long holiday weekend in observance of Washington’s Birthday on Monday.
Shares of Manchester United (MANU), one of England’s most successful football clubs, are in the spotlight ahead of Friday’s deadline for takeover bids. Entities from Saudi Arabi, Qatar alongside Jim Ratcliffe, the British billionaire owner of petrochemicals giant INEOS, are believed to be interested.
DoorDash (DASH) is up 6% in premarket action after delivering well-received results. Deere shares (DE) are up 3% after the tractor maker reported fiscal first-quarter profit and revenue that beat expectations by wide margin.
Going in the other direction is Moderna (MRNA), down 6% after revealing disappointing results for a flu vaccine
In a boost to European businesses and households, the region’s benchmark natural gas prices have fallen below 50 euros for the first time in 17 months.
Posted the article in a comment.
GDP growth is positive and unemployment is very low.
In a recession, GDP growth is negative and unemployment is high.
So, how are we in a recession?
If you remember last year at this time they were predicting $6 a gallon gas here in the Northeast (yes I know about the West Coast prices) and widespread food shortages. None of which happened nor is it likely they will happen in 2023. But don't tell that to the preppers and gold bugs.
Thanks, I find your take logical. Even in the midst of booms, some people will personally be in recession. Some people just want things to be bad because that’s their mental mindset. They are in personal recession at all times.
Also, people confuse inflation with recession. They think if things are “unaffordable” we are in a recession. This isn’t right either.
Some are heartbroken at the very idea that everyone isn’t suffering because they want everyone to suffer. They’ll just have to be heartbroken.
For chronic sufferers the economy has two cycles:
Recession/depression and Fake Boom. They’ve got their hearts set on recession/depression and they are going to be recessed and depressed no matter what is really happening.
Reason #1: If they are allowed to redefine “recession” then they can define it out of existence.
“Reason #1: If they are allowed to redefine “recession” then they can define it out of existence.”
Who is ‘they’?
Anyone can define recession however they want and be in one whenever they want. They are always in recession, God love ‘em.
GDP is positive and unemployment is below 4%.
The corrupt political leaders currently occupying the White House say the GDP is positive and we are having RECORD low unemployment.
Now, who are you going to believe them or your own lying eyes?!?
Folks are wearing out their credit cards thinking the light is at end of the tunnel. Its not. The 1.7t trillion omnibus slush fund will start dribbling into the economy which will offset the continued effort by the fed to control inflation. Then as things gets worse instead of better credit dries up. Then recession happens. Of course proxy wars are good for the GDP so maybe we eek out a soft landing but folks are going to feel the pain for a time to come because these fools are just repeating the same mistakes that got them here in the first place.
Oh it is, in the form of an oncoming train.
“GDP is positive and unemployment is below 4%.
Those are pretty big assumptions.”
If you have different numbers please post them and tell us where they came from.
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