Posted on 02/02/2023 1:32:33 PM PST by Vlad0
The shadow that has hung over the Ukraine war is the fear that it could lead to a direct clash between Washington and Moscow. Given that both sides have large arsenals of nuclear weapons, conflict could lead to Armageddon. Compounding things is the fact that Biden cannot stop talking about nuclear war. Given his mental condition, this suggests that he is often in earshot of the decision makers, who may be seriously discussing the possible use of nuclear weapons.
The dynamic of the war thus far has been Washington poking Moscow hoping for a response, which it can use to justify escalation. First, they said that they would not supply Ukraine with Western weapons, then they sent Western weapons. Then it was long range guided missiles. Now we see modern tanks being prepped, with discussions about F-16 fighter jets on the agenda. All of these weapons transfers are intended to provoke a response from Moscow.
The proof of that is the fact that none of these systems can make a difference on the battlefield for a number of reasons. The biggest reason is that the West has designed its weapons to be used in combined arms warfare. Alone, these weapons are not terribly useful and may even be a hinderance to the Ukrainians. The M777 howitzer, for example, is known for being maintenance heavy. Giving the Ukrainians these weapons just adds to their onerous sustainment burden.
Of course, the “cry out in pain as you strike” tactic is the regime default. This is used domestically and internationally. It goes back a long time. In his ongoing criticism of Washington with regards to the war in Ukraine, Douglas Macgregor likes to remind people that the Roosevelt administration did everything it could to bait the Japanese into launching an attack on American assets. They needed a reason to get into the war and that was viewed as the best avenue.
When you combine the psychological instability of the people running the war for the regime and the long history of provoking adversaries, the prospects of a nuclear holocaust start to look better or worse, depending upon your perspective. If the usual suspects stick to their usual patterns, it means they will keep provoking the Russians until they get the desired response. That desired response will justify some further provocation eventually leading to all out war.
The first question to answer here is what response from Russia would warrant a direct attack on Russia by NATO? The obvious answer is an attack on NATO. This is why the Poles rushed to the nearest microphone demanding war with Russia when the Ukrainian missile landed on Polish territory. The Polish president knew the plan and assumed it was go time. It turned out to be a Ukrainian missile, but the incident confirmed the thinking within the West.
Assuming the Kagan cult has concluded they need a Russian attack on a NATO country in order to launch their nuclear war, what would the West have to do in order to provoke such an attack by the Russians? That is turning out to be a tough question to answer, given what the West has done thus far. Russian people have been attacked in NATO countries like Estonia. Russian assets have been seized. The West even engineered the assassination of Alexander Dugan’s daughter.
Over the last year, the West has done a number of things that would justify a response, but so far the Russians have been careful to avoid the trap. The closest they have come to a direct retaliation was the missile barrage after the Brits set off the truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge in the Crimea. Given that the missile attacks on the Ukrainian power grid have continued, that may have been a coincidence. The missile barrage would have required advanced planning.
The fact is time is on Russia’s side and they know it. Every day this war goes on drains the West of vital resources. The Pentagon is already making noises about the Ukraine war harming its ability to deal with China. The war has also exposed the fact that Europe has let its militaries and arms production go to seed. Germany, France and Britain no longer have a military for all practical purposes. It will take them years to fix the problems, even if they find the will to do so.
If the Russian have a very high tolerance for provocation, then the question flips around to the other side. What limit is there in Washington? Where is the line that the people running policy in the Biden will not cross? Given that regime players have been gleefully talking about “de-colonizing Russia” for the last year, it is hard to imagine a red line that they would not dare cross. If you are bragging about your plans to regime change Russia, you probably have no red lines.
Now, there is another angle here. This could all be the result of a bluff that has badly backfired on Washington. The initial taunts before the war were not intended to bait the Russians into launching their operation, but were a bluff. The subsequent economic sanctions and arms shipments were a further bluff. Washington was telling Moscow that they were in it for the long haul and would stuff Ukraine with arms. The hope was that Moscow would reconsider and retreat.
It is entirely possible that the Global American Empire is facing a catastrophe in Ukraine because the Russians called their bluff. It is also possible that the Russia misread the signals coming from the West. Given the mistakes they made early in the war, it could simply be the Russians read things the wrong way. They not only did not see it as a direct threat to intervene, they assumed it was just the usual hot air. One side was bluffing while the other side did not see the bluff.
Either way, once things got going the regime seems to have fallen into a form of the sunk cost fallacy. They invest in new bluffing strategies in order to save the investment in the previous failed bluffing strategy. At this point, the Russians know the limitations of the West in terms of time and material. The huffing and puffing from the West is seen as a bluff, one that can easily be ignored. Will Washington accept this reality or pivot to some desperate action?
That last question could decide the fate of the world. At this point it is clear that the Ukrainians cannot win. The death toll is staggering. The Russians cannot be bluffed or bullied, so what does Washington do next? Do they try one last desperate attempt to provoke the Russians into something foolish? Are there any sane people left in Washington who can step in and stop this madness? The fate of the world may rest on the mental stability of the crazies who started the war.
Regardless, it appears that the neocon scheme to de-colonize Russia is reaching a denouement in the coming months. Ukraine is running out of men to throw into the meat grinder and the West is running out of machines. The war will end in 2023, but how it ends is the question. Can Washington find some way to strike a deal with Russia that Russia will accept? Have the Russians concluded that no deal can be made with such untrustworthy people? We will know soon.
There are comments on the Wordpress site, too.
Pretty good summary of the situation by Z-Man. One hopes for some smarter people with cooler heads to prevail, but we don't seem to see any sign of them in the Biden mal-administration.
Thanks. I’ll read and reply this evening
Thanks for the laugh.
If the West is constrained by fear of Russia using nukes, Russia is constrained by fear of intervention by NATO's conventional forces. 20 HIMARS alone were enough to force a major redisposition of Russian forces. How would the Russian army fare against NATO forces?
This is not a war for Russia's national existence but for territorial aggrandizement and egoism. If the West brings enough conventional military pressure to bear, Russia will be defeated in Ukraine, and given Russia's conventional weakness it will not engage NATO with conventional forces and given matching nuclear forces it won't use nukes either over a fight that does not threaten Russia's existence or any internationally recognized Russian territory.
Have you ever noticed that one of the biggest Talking Points from the neoconneds around here is "Russia should simply retreat to its own borders"?
Oddly specific, and completely in tune with the Swamp neocons...
Hush, neoconned.
Parking NAFO missiles on Russia's western border IS existential.
This from an official US Government website:
https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/decolonizing-russia
Russia must know they are in an existential contest.
I’ve posted that link before. Prepare for neocon flames.
You’d be wrong, but you should seek employment in the pentagon. You still might be the smartest in the room.
Everything the west sends turns to scrap metal. Worse, it will directly lead to direct confrontation.
The neocon “conservatives” will get on here and rant and rave about the incompetent BiteMe regime and the corruption of the US government and deep state and yet turn around and believe ANYTHING that comes out of the BiteMe regime and those same corrupt and incompetent US government agencies if it concerns the Ukraine and Russia.
Why would BiteMe and his regime lie about everything under the sun except for the Ukraine and Russia?
I’m not buying the Russian malarkey but then again I am not buying the US CIA/BiteMe regime bilge either. Both are lying and there are no adults left in Washington to stop this mess from blowing up the world, they really believe they can do regime change on a major world power that has nukes and they alone can pick the leader of Russia and how they want to carve up that country. Insanity...
Your Putin got himself botoxed for his Stalingrad concert today. He is to be feared. LOL!
a) Surely not all of the equipment we send to Ukraine is being destroyed;
b) no one has ever proposed nuke missiles in Ukraine and the most we are sending are shorter range tactical systems.
You guys just really can't stand the fact that he lowly Ukrainians are standing toe-to-to with the Great and Glorious Republic of Russiastan.
Pretty sure this all ends with Putin’s head... Or maybe his entire shirtless torso with head attached, on a spike.
Putin will not survive this war, it’s been about a year and so far his only achievement has been lots and lots of young Russian blood spilled across various parts of the Ukraine.
That’s not an accomplishment... By any measure, that’s a complete failure.
The poor fool thought that Ukraine and it’s western support would dissipate into capitulation... Now that his generals and advisors know that assessment was wishful thinking, they are preparing for the eventual transition to a new regime.
And hopefully the new regime will be one geared towards the actual freedom that Russians thought they had achieved with the ouster of Communism. Instead... They got Communism 2.0... And an autocratic, narcissistic dictator parading around as a man of the people, embracing the western decadence of consumerism and claiming that it was freedom.
Freedom isn’t McDonald’s and KFC... It’s the ability to express an opinion and be unafraid of the consequence. Many Russian’s thought they could do that, and now they are in jail and gulags... Just like the old days... Maybe after Putin is replaced, they will finally get a real leader and real freedom.
I don’t care about either side. Facts are, Ukrainians are dying by the boatload. Ukes have killed many of their own civilians over this war and we prolong it by a sending gear. The west is going to keep provoking until its a direct conflict, Germany for one has already said they’re at war. This is a dangerous game in a part of the world that doesn’t concern us.
We're just coming off a month where the former German chancellor and the former French president were yukking it up about lying to Putin and Russia about the Minsk accords, and you cr@p out this line about what the West is proposing and what we are at most sending, for now?
We're not stupid, neoconned mouthpiece.
Even more oddly, they used to talk about how “Russia needed an off-ramp,” as if somehow Putin was looking for a face saving excuse to leave. What world do these obtuse people inhabit?
Exactly.
pierre the neoconned is a total tool who wants to use the bodies of young Ukrainian and Russian men to feed his Forever War.
I used to think that most people on this site were above average intelligence, but covid and this war have proved me wrong.
Everyone try to understand that this is the ginning up towards the fake nuclear standoff coming our way. Then The fake administration will back away from the brink at the last minute and possibly the military will the step in because john Q Public will be so scared they’ll readily accept it. Get ready to let the press scare you to death because its definitely happening.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.