Colonel Macgregor, with the exception of his statement on Solzhenitsyn, basically confirms what I was preaching for many years. No, not that Washington is incompetent--this has been a fait accompli for decades now--but that the US is incapable to take on Russia militarily.
Video at link
But even the title by Judge Napolitano is somewhat misleading: U.S. Not Prepared to take on Russia. The US is not just "not prepared", it cannot physically fight Russia without sustaining catastrophic defeat even if it spends next 30 years preparing for that fight. For starters, the US de-industrialization and societal ills permanently removed it from the largely self-proclaimed status of hegemon. The US will remain an important and influential country if it manages to keep itself intact (if), but, as I already stated, culturally the United States is not a continental military power. I deliberately used the all encompassing, history too, term "culturally", because military affairs of the nation are rooted in culture.
A short, in historic terms, departure of Russia from her position as a conventional military superpower in 1990s and 2000s was not due to America's military power which defeated Russians at the battlefield, it was largely due to self-inflicted wound and corruption of CPSU ruling elite, who fast refashioned itself into "liberal" democrats and formed anti-national oligarchy. This time has long since passed. Now, that the military-industrial might of Russia is being increasingly revealed, I have to go along with Colonel's assessment that Washington is simply preparing an excuse that "we did all we could". There is nothing the United States can send to 404, short of transferring US nuclear deterrent to Kiev regime, that can make any difference in the outcome of SMO. So, listen to Colonel and Judge and enjoy, if you will.
Might be true. But we are living off our past reputation so we have a little time. The Russians haven't adjusted their tactics, they take too many casualties. They've always been bad at wars. But that doesn't stop them from winning them.
Colonel Mcgregor, as usual, is blowing smoke. He doesnt even bother to count noses, which one would think is important in making such a case. I do not undetstand him, truly. The first stop before making such statements should be a bit of research.
Ex - Russia has, ostensibly, some 1400 combat aircraft in all services. That includes ancient things like SU-24s and MiG 29’s. And that does not include combat and operational losses due to Ukraine. The US has over 3400 combat aircraft, in active, reserve, or NG inventory, including some 450 F-35’s.
And that does not include NATO, another 1500-1800 combat aircraft. Lets say 1500, throwing out superannuated ex-Soviets and things like Turkish F-4s.
And the US aircraft production rate per annum is a multiple of Russia’s, at @ 150 F-35’s alone. The Russian production rate of all combat aircraft was under 50, IIRC, including for foreign sales.
As for capacity, consider that the commercial Russian aircraft industry delivered @20 commercial aircraft in 2021, while Boeing alone delivered 340, and Airbus 600.
The US Army is structured to fight a continental power. Its got 20 divisions between active Army and National Guard. And its got $#$%loads of equipment for them. It is vastly stronger as a standing force than the Russian Army.
Its big problem is getting all that stuff to a continent in a reasonable time.
And then there are the Euros. They are of mixed abilities, but the majority are pretty well prepared, for their active force. I figure that in an emergency they should be able to put @11-12 divisions in Poland (including the Poles) in 3 months, almost all active regulars. That plus the US (3-4 Divisions in an emergency, counting prepositioned equipment, in 3 months), gives 45 brigades of regulars, not counting various Eastern Europe militias. Thats 2X what Ukraine has, with much better equipment, and the support of overwhelming air forces.
Division count - 5 Polish (one from reserves), 1 British, 1 German, 1 French, 1 Spanish, 1 Mixed Eastern Europe, 1 Mixed Western Europe, and probably another mixed division. I’m not counting Finns, Swedes, Italians, Greeks or Turks, though the Italians have exercised in Poland and the Baltics.
Add Polish, Baltic, Romanian, etc militias for local defense. Between them there are quite a few.
And, of course, the Ukrainian Army, which will continue to absorb a disproportionate segment of Russian forces.