Posted on 02/01/2023 8:43:08 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Ukraine and Russia are fighting a "First World War-like" battle for the city of Bakhmut as casualties pile up on both sides, western officials have said.
But Britain said on Tuesday it was "not practical" to supply fighter jets despite the assessment of western analysts that the war is entering a stalemate.
Ukraine is pushing Nato members to supply their jets after US President Joe Biden ruled out sending F-16s.
Kyiv and Moscow are believed to be planning spring offensives as the war's anniversary approaches.
The eastern city of Bakhmut has been the site of heavy fighting as Ukraine awaits the arrival of western tanks.
"Both sides are suffering really heavy casualties, particularly around Bakhmut. It’s a devastating, First World War-like operating environment," one western official said.
The official said the race was on for which side could maintain its supply of weapons and build up its offensive capability.
"Even though on paper the Russians have greater mass, what we’ve seen is that they haven’t been able to employ that successfully on the battlefield," they said.
"The Ukrainians have an advantage from superior western military equipment that’s being provided.
"There’s some poor decision-making on the Russian side and there’s some pretty agile thinking happening on the Ukrainian side.
(Excerpt) Read more at thenationalnews.com ...
The trenches are awful especially with drone bomblets you can’t run from
Colonel Macgregor, with the exception of his statement on Solzhenitsyn, basically confirms what I was preaching for many years. No, not that Washington is incompetent--this has been a fait accompli for decades now--but that the US is incapable to take on Russia militarily.
Video at link
But even the title by Judge Napolitano is somewhat misleading: U.S. Not Prepared to take on Russia. The US is not just "not prepared", it cannot physically fight Russia without sustaining catastrophic defeat even if it spends next 30 years preparing for that fight. For starters, the US de-industrialization and societal ills permanently removed it from the largely self-proclaimed status of hegemon. The US will remain an important and influential country if it manages to keep itself intact (if), but, as I already stated, culturally the United States is not a continental military power. I deliberately used the all encompassing, history too, term "culturally", because military affairs of the nation are rooted in culture.
A short, in historic terms, departure of Russia from her position as a conventional military superpower in 1990s and 2000s was not due to America's military power which defeated Russians at the battlefield, it was largely due to self-inflicted wound and corruption of CPSU ruling elite, who fast refashioned itself into "liberal" democrats and formed anti-national oligarchy. This time has long since passed. Now, that the military-industrial might of Russia is being increasingly revealed, I have to go along with Colonel's assessment that Washington is simply preparing an excuse that "we did all we could". There is nothing the United States can send to 404, short of transferring US nuclear deterrent to Kiev regime, that can make any difference in the outcome of SMO. So, listen to Colonel and Judge and enjoy, if you will.
We are ALL in a WWI situation.
Its August, 1914 all over again
The Ukies are winning. The idea of a stalemate or that Uke needs tanks and jets is Russian propaganda.
Might be true. But we are living off our past reputation so we have a little time. The Russians haven't adjusted their tactics, they take too many casualties. They've always been bad at wars. But that doesn't stop them from winning them.
Reminds me of Tim Tebow. Everyone cracked on his stats, said he did everything wrong etc. All he knew how to do was win games.
Russia and Ukraine are like the Gingham Dog and the Calico Cat.
the Russians now have the supply roads under artillery range/fire. It doesnt look good for the UA. I suspect the town will be isolated in the coming days and it will be street fighting again like Soledar.
Colonel Mcgregor, as usual, is blowing smoke. He doesnt even bother to count noses, which one would think is important in making such a case. I do not undetstand him, truly. The first stop before making such statements should be a bit of research.
Ex - Russia has, ostensibly, some 1400 combat aircraft in all services. That includes ancient things like SU-24s and MiG 29’s. And that does not include combat and operational losses due to Ukraine. The US has over 3400 combat aircraft, in active, reserve, or NG inventory, including some 450 F-35’s.
And that does not include NATO, another 1500-1800 combat aircraft. Lets say 1500, throwing out superannuated ex-Soviets and things like Turkish F-4s.
And the US aircraft production rate per annum is a multiple of Russia’s, at @ 150 F-35’s alone. The Russian production rate of all combat aircraft was under 50, IIRC, including for foreign sales.
As for capacity, consider that the commercial Russian aircraft industry delivered @20 commercial aircraft in 2021, while Boeing alone delivered 340, and Airbus 600.
Who to believe, you or my lying eyes? Saint George Washington Zelensky has been on a year-long world tour begging for military arms. That is not something someone who is winning does.
The US Army is structured to fight a continental power. Its got 20 divisions between active Army and National Guard. And its got $#$%loads of equipment for them. It is vastly stronger as a standing force than the Russian Army.
Its big problem is getting all that stuff to a continent in a reasonable time.
And then there are the Euros. They are of mixed abilities, but the majority are pretty well prepared, for their active force. I figure that in an emergency they should be able to put @11-12 divisions in Poland (including the Poles) in 3 months, almost all active regulars. That plus the US (3-4 Divisions in an emergency, counting prepositioned equipment, in 3 months), gives 45 brigades of regulars, not counting various Eastern Europe militias. Thats 2X what Ukraine has, with much better equipment, and the support of overwhelming air forces.
Division count - 5 Polish (one from reserves), 1 British, 1 German, 1 French, 1 Spanish, 1 Mixed Eastern Europe, 1 Mixed Western Europe, and probably another mixed division. I’m not counting Finns, Swedes, Italians, Greeks or Turks, though the Italians have exercised in Poland and the Baltics.
Add Polish, Baltic, Romanian, etc militias for local defense. Between them there are quite a few.
And, of course, the Ukrainian Army, which will continue to absorb a disproportionate segment of Russian forces.
It’s not a stalemate - Russia is winning.
In an interview in The Economist, the head of the Ukrainian military said he knew what he needed to win, and that NATO couldn’t give it to him because they didn’t have it to give.
I recently posted an article about the dire state of Germany’s military - NATO joined a war of a attrition when they didn’t have the weapons to hold out.
The Ukraine has lost so many soldiers even giving them equipment won’t help. The tanks need air support and there isn’t enough to protect them, so Russia will pick them off, one after another.
These articles falsely depicting a close battle, when the Ukraine is definitely unable to defend itself from Putin’s large offensives, only increases the Ukrainian body count but doesn’t change the outcome. The Ukraine will lose, but only after taking as many of her citizens to the grave as cannon fodder. Oh, and draining NATO, including the US, of what little weapons and citizen’s money they have left.
Yes Putin is losing soldiers too, but not at the rate and to the level the Ukraine is. NATO brought a war of attrition to him and they are losing with their own strategy used against him.
Meanwhile Biden has thrown our borders open to all our enemies, and handed our weapons to the Ukraine....
Ukraine is NOT winning. They are suffering so much attrition of troops and equipment, the U.S. is combing the world to scrounge tanks, artillery and ammunition to send there. Many of the world’s governments are saying a big “NO” to sending more weapons.
What is really going on is the suicide of NATO. It cannot defeat Russia in a land war. The United States does not have a military big enough to defeat Russia in a land war.
The nations of Western Europe are destroying their own economies and deliberately hurting their own people with the irrational sanctions on energy and trade which are not materially hurting Russia but are crippling Europe with runaway inflation.
The real reason Biden does not want to send F-16 fighters to Ukraine is the Pentagon does not want to reveal to the world the Russians have the best air defenses in the world and will quickly turn F-16’s into fireballs as fast as they show up in the skies over Ukraine. That would be bad for the business of the military industrial complex to have American fighter jets be shown to be inferior to a superior Russian military.
What is being demonstrated is America’s inability to now field a military that can win major battles. This proxy war is a disaster changing the course of history.
Even the “NEW” F-35 is a massively overpriced fighter jet proven unable to prevail in battle because it is worse at everything than its U.S. fighter jet predecessors. The F-35 has made its manufacturer fabulously wealthy while destroying the credibility of the USA. It’s a “dog” of an aircraft likely to be the world’s most expensive “pilot coffin” if sent into battle.
“Even though on paper the Russians have greater mass, what we’ve seen is that they haven’t been able to employ that successfully on the battlefield,” they said.
“The Ukrainians have an advantage from superior western military equipment that’s being provided.
“There’s some poor decision-making on the Russian side and there’s some pretty agile thinking happening on the Ukrainian side“
That’s so inaccurate, we can only hope this source has no influence over policy or planning,
Exactly, the collective West is in panic mode. I sincerely hope the current fracturing of the EU will result in the demise of NATO.
Strange how everything the West is trying to do to Russia is failing ( their sanctions are a total failure), and backfiring. What they are wishing on Russia will befall upon themselves…..the cracks in the EU are growing, l look forward to a dismantled EU, Europe prior to their EU experiment was not mired in unpayable debt, was prosperous and each country had a stake to in its own future.
That’s not counting noses
In this war noses is combat troops
Russia has about 650,000 equipped troops on the ground or on the border ready to join the battle
NATO has about 100,000 after they can mass them. Equipment and ammo is questionable for any sustained offensive,
Ukraine which had reported 200,000 combat ( not support) troops before the war, is losing so many men, it is reduced to dragging men off the streets of Uke cities and villages, and hustling them into vans to provide fresh meat for the trenches. Which are moving further and further behind Ukraines 1st and 2d lines of defense engineered since 2014
Airframes mean less in this war than any war since 1914, we have grown to rely on the strategy of taking down the enemy air defenses prior to any significant campaign to achieve air superiority. And to achieve air superiority to cover the ground war and provide air support and air defense. We are seeing a land battle over a wide area supported by drones, missiles and with some air support, but this is not Desert Storm. i’ve seen reports the Russians fly 50-60 sorties a day, the Ukrainians 5-6. Russian CAP, with their long range ( up to 300 km) hypersonic R-37 AAM’s, is very close to their own mainland borders
What may have worked in Iraq, is not feasible here without a massive escalation of direct NATO attacks, physical and cyber, on and in Russia and possibly surrounding states.
The Bakhmut battle really looks like the battle for Verdun.
I hope it will not kill as many people!
An important thing about WW I armies, and battle tactics, was that once peer forces were locked in combat on a fixed front, there was no solution for victory save causing so much death and destruction as to precipitate mutiny in the rear and revolution at home.
Is that the plan?
Thats noses. Throw in the, oh, 150,000 extra US personnel, 200,000 Poles, and all those other Euros, and you’ve got your number. And thats just the people in Poland.
Your Russian 600,000 arent all guys with rifles. 2/3 are REMFs as in all armies.
Anyway, hardware is key. This sort of war is a contest of systems.
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