Ukraine has faced Putin’s Special Operation that had 160,000 soldiers (90K combat/60K support). The Duma or Ruskie Govt is going to authorize the entire Armed Forces of Russia to relieve those involved in the past year. Russia has 675,000 combat/support troops designated for offensive operations coming from Russia proper with a combat reserve of about 260,000 for either contingencies or to push forwar a breakout. Additionally, Belarus and Russia have integrated their Armed Forces - estimated 80,000 to 150,000 soldiers are designated for a push along the Uke/Polish boarder.
Ukraine has been pushed to brink. There are reports of a Russian break through on the Uke Defensive Backmuf anchors. There are now estimates that Backmuf may only hold for another 3 weeks tops, expectation of 10-20 days.
This conflict to date has pushed the Uke air defenses to brink as well. There are reports that both sides have been flying choppers in close support on the front lines - because missiles are being held back for the Uke S300s.
On the One Year Anniversary of the Special Operation (Russia is big on anniversaries), Ukraine will not be facing 160,000 soldiers - they are going to face 675,000. Ukraine can expect to see the full weight of Russian Air Power, absent to date. Should a front open up via Belarus, Uke’s may find themselves cut off from Poland and the “underground railway” that makes the NATO equipment deliveries shut down.
Ukraine has been forced into a war of attrition this first year. Artillery duels do most of the heavy lifting in breaking defensive positions. Also, since last September/October when Russia pulled back into better defendable positons and Ukrainian’s claimed their Victories, Ukraine has sent 25,000 or more to deaths in attacks against the Ruskie defensive lines.
NATO sees it clearly now and they are sending “token” equipment in the form of tanks which comprise in total from all sources (Britan, US, Poland/GE) about a Brigade of tanks. This amount probably won’t do much to change the course of the War in February going forward.
The use of drones have made tanks hard to protect and tank tracks are “dead” giveaway for Artillery or the S31s in Belarus that are 5th Gen AC.
Russia is producing 3.4M 156 arty rounds annually, and they could probably push that number up to maybe 5.5M which is enough to fire 10,000-15,000 artillery rounds a day on Ukraine. Russia hasn’t used up the War Reserve Stocks yet so Ukraine can never match Russia Tube for Tube or round for round. This war has been Artillery 24/7 to date.
Russia is going to commit 4X the combat forces in February in Ukraine.
Russia will have the 3d Combined Field Army (500,000 mem) trained and ready to fight by August and six weeks ago Russia began the startup of the 4th Combined Field Army (500,000).
Short of WWIII there isn’t a damn thing the US can do to prevent Russia from DeNAZIfication of the Ukrainian State. Zenlesky is frequently seen with troops with NAZI insigna in his entrouge. While he says Russia will be pushed out of Crimea and all Ukraine.... One.five million Russian troops says by Christmas Zenlensky will be in Florida and a negotiated settlement ensuring Russia has her way.
If you try to find this information for yourself it is out there. Different NATO ministers or their equilavent of our Sec of the Army/AF/Navy are saying different parts in their daily briefings.
Troops are being rotated in and out of Belarus for training, but no huge buildup of the size you describe is detected. A northern invasion of the western part of Ukraine is still impassable because of the Pripet marshes. And I still rate the chance of Belarus' participation in a new assault as fairly low. Maybe Lukashenko will send some units to fight with Russian units in the south like Franco sent divisions to Russia, but that's probably all. The Russian army has also already stripped Belarus of most of its armor.
As far as the Russian Air Force goes, it seems to be in the same condition as the Russian army: poorly trained and poorly equipped. And Russia isn't "holding back." The problem is the combat radius. Russian aircraft have to fly low to avoid Ukrainian air defense. Doing so with a combat load severely reduces the radius of the aircraft, and that severely limits the bases from which they can operate and thus the number of sorties. This problem will get worse if Ukraine acquires or develops longer-range munitions or drones.
My view is that Putin has far more limited goals: grab the remaining parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and hold onto the parts of Zaporizhia and the southern Kherson oblasts linking Crimea to Russia. He is simply trying to inflict enough punishment on the Ukrainian Army and Ukrainian civilian population as he can to force Ukraine to accept this.
Putin has trouble equipping and training the troops he's already raised, so I think the figures you are citing are fantasies, at least in the time frame you are discussing.