All is not well for Ukraine

The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine’s dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.

These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.

At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.

There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.

The US decision to ship upgraded nuclear bombs to Europe also will convince the Russians that tactical nuclear war may be NATO’s response if Ukraine collapses. Compared with the US and NATO, Russia has a massive arsenal of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

Ukraine’s forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon’s view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.

Ukrainian soldiers digging trenches in Bakhmut. Image: Screengrab / CNN However, Ukraine’s military and political leaders can’t pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.

President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine’s secret police, the SBU.

But that won’t protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.

Russians have at least an 8:1 advantage in artillery and equipment. With that in mind, do the losses reported by ORYX make any sense whatsoever?

Good article:

Russia Has More Artillery Than Ukraine. But Russian Gunners Have A Bad Habit Of Shelling ... Nothing.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/12/18/russia-has-more-artillery-than-ukraine-but-russian-gunners-have-a-bad-habit-of-shelling--nothing/?sh=515b707aaed7

You guys all preach from the same sheet.

You think one more dollar spent at the VA is going to get one homeless vet off the streets?

That just tells me you don’t know much about homeless people or the VA programs for them.

Your hyperbole means you are either a troll, a plant, or an excitable boy.

So, let’s say that Ukraine, for the point of your argument, passes off its equipment losses as Russian. Should that be true, then based upon the vehicle registry numbers, Ukraine has lost far more equipment than it had or was given. Yet, as previously noted, it has gained ground since the first few weeks of the war, and forced Putin to initiate 3 manpower drafts.

The story on the ground is one of stalemate and trench warfare, with no one achieving air superiority or breakthroughs. The loss rate for equipment, especially tanks and artillery, have dropped off substantially this month. Movement of Russian equipment by train has shown T-64 tanks to the front. Photos show soldiers issued mosin nagant rifles. This sounds like equipment exhaustion, not winning like you imply.

Western soft equipment, some of it ‘old’ turned a Russian shock and awe, to a trench warfare. I have a feeling that T-64 and T-72 tanks, especially without upgrades, will be death traps for crews in the current environment. Western APC’s with ancient TOW missiles (twice range of tank guns) will put new meaning to the term death trap, especially with drones and satellites spotting.

We will see, there is supposed to be a new Russian offensive. Maybe you’re right and Ukraine will just collapse. Hate to see this war just drag on, and a failed Russian offensive will likely result in Ukraine getting more Bradley’s, TOW missiles, main battle tanks, a couple thousand F-15, F-18, F16, and A-10 just sitting in the Arizona desert. Winning quickly would end much suffering and probably be safer for Russia and the World. If the Russians can’t take out Ukraine by summer, they are going to wish they had withdrawn and negotiated in my opinion. The balance of power will shift away from Russia, except poorly equipped untrained infantry numbers.

I don’t want to see Ukraine invade Russia, it will cause an environmental disaster when Russia releases the only thing they have left in inventory, nukes. It’s a stupid war, with stupid prizes….
Everyone should reconsider this fact.

This is more designed for crooks to CYA and launder money.

Oh. On this point, that’s its about money laudering and dirty politicians in Ukraine and George Soros, we definitively agree. I am not ‘cheering’ for these people, I am backing the poor farmers and peasants that mind their own business who get caught in the middle. The longer it goes on, the more these people suffer.

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