We’ll see.
Two things are for sure, we are in uncharted waters and there is much instability.
Where this all leads isn’t entirely predictable at this point.
One thing I do not believe the Russians expected was the degree of support given to Ukraine by NATO nations.
We are throwing at them everything shy of our own troops: money, intel, massive military equipment, logistics, training... We started out in early 2022 with a delivery of 2,000 Javelin missiles (that was just part of one package), that’s not chump change: https://www.wionews.com/photos/ukraine-to-get-us-stingers-javelin-anti-armour-systems-is-it-a-gamechanger-463142/#ukraine-to-get-electronic-warfare-detection-systems-463132
To date we have sent something like 300,000 155mm artillery shells. We have provided things such as Excalibur (GPS guided 155mm rounds), Stinger, M777, HIMARS with rockets, drones including attack drones, electronic warfare systems... We are throwing huge amounts of material into this conflict and a lot of it is state of the art, things we are using ourselves. Others are doing the same, the UK sent 6,000 NLAW and another 4,000 in another shipment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10645795/Britain-sends-Ukraine-6-000-missiles-flame-freedom-alive-Ukraine.html
And of course then there is a mercenary aspect where we are letting vast numbers cross the border from Poland into Ukraine to fight, we don’t try to stop them leaving the US either... We are indirectly paying for them as well: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/20000-european-mercenaries-to-fight-with-ukrainian-army This was echoed in Time: https://time.com/6155670/foreign-fighters-ukraine-europe/
This is just 1 of 8 arms packages post war begin:
🇬🇧14 Challenger 2 tanks
🇬🇧100 modern rockets (?)
🇬🇧30 SPG AS90
🇬🇧200 IFVs
🇨🇦200 Senator armored vehicles
🇨🇦1 NASAMS air defense battery
🇵🇱14 tanks Leopard 2
🇺🇸100 Bradley’s
🇺🇸55 armored vehicles
🇺🇸100 M113’s
🇺🇸18 M109А6’s
🇺🇸250 M1117’s
🇺🇸138 HMMWV armored vehicles
🇺🇸100 Stryker’s
🇺🇸 GLSDB
🇺🇸36 105mm howitzers
🇺🇸1 Patriot Air Defense/O Battery
🇺🇸6 Nasams air defense batteries
🇺🇸18 HIMARS
🇫🇷 40(?) AMX-10RC wheeled tanks
🇫🇷 (?) Bastion armored cars
🇩🇪40 Marder IFVs
🇩🇪1 Patriot AA/O Battery
🇩🇪3 Iris-T air defense batteries + 3 TRML-4D radars
🇩🇪2 TRML-4D radar
🇩🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰16 Zuzana-2 SPG
🇳🇱🇺🇸🇨🇿120 T-72 tanks
🇳🇱1 Patriot AA/O Battery
🇸🇪50 CV-90 tanks
🇸🇪12 Archer SPG
🇮🇹🇫🇷1 AA/O SAMP/T Battery
🇨🇿26-30 SAU Dana-M2
🇪🇪10+ howitzers 155mm FH70
🇪🇪10+ howitzers 122mm D30
🇩🇰 ? SAU Caesar
It’s possible that things changed and the Apache is heading to Ukraine. But when I looked it up, it didn’t check out.
Are those 18 HIMARS from existing inventory, or new production / yet to be built?
The 20 we’ve delivered so far (or maybe it’s up to 24 now?) were dribbled out in batches of 4 a month.
Even if the Ukies have received 24, that’s under 6% of the inventory we had a year ago, and, SFAIK another 50 or so were scheduled for 2022 delivery.
I guess my point is that while some of those numbers seem impressive, Russia has a huge numbers advantage, and while their weapons generally are not as good, they also are not suffering from dire lack of long range weapons or aircraft.