Posted on 01/18/2023 11:43:39 PM PST by Cronos
Beijing’s hardline zero-Covid strategy likely led to the economic gap with the United States widening last year after China’s economy grew at its second slowest pace in 46 years, according to analysts.
The world’s second-largest economy grew by 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, data released on Tuesday showed, as China’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022 grew by 3 per cent to 121 trillion yuan (US$18 trillion).
China’s full-year growth figure was only slightly better than the 2.2 per cent growth seen in 2020, which was the lowest since 1976, and fell short of the official “around 5.5 per cent” target.
But the annual figure was still better than expected after a coronavirus-ravaged 2022, and comes after Beijing abruptly ended its zero-Covid strategy last month, raising hopes that China can resume its bid to end the US’ lengthy run as the world’s largest economy, which economists at Goldman Sachs said in December could occur by around 2035.
...“The double-dip last year led to a bigger economic gap with the US, rather than narrowing,” said Qiu Xiaohua, former head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
(Excerpt) Read more at scmp.com ...
China GDP is known to have been consistently overstated.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine
“China GDP is known to have been consistently overstated.”
I DARE anyone to look up:
1. Steel Production
2. Concrete Production
3. Electricity Production
4. Car Production
...and just about anything else, compare it to the US, and then tell us that China is a paper tiger.
So we can keep telling ourselves that we’re King of the Hill, but China has passed us in just about every category, other than Lawyers, Feminist Scholars, Artists, and other useless crap. The world sees that and is moving towards China (and now Russia), and that is why the Neocons are having a Hissy-Fit and likely think that a nuclear exchange is preferable to no longer being able to bully the Third World.
I always liked that one.
If the Dems continue to destroy our economy and the dollar crashes, China will take over the World Reserve Currency. The Chinese are determined to acquire the WRC in order to economically survive and the Dems seem to be determined to accommodate them.
I don’t see China as “taking over the world reserve currency” — beyond some places in Africa and North Korea, no country wants to have the controlled yuan as THE world reserve currency.
However, there is no doubt that the yuan/renminbi is one Currency in many countries basket of currencies - along with the Dollar, the Yen, the Pound and the Euro.
“The Chinese are determined to acquire the WRC in order to economically survive “ —> they can not only survive but thrive even in the current scenario
I am overcome with the feeling that I’ve traveled back in time...
This is exactly the argument partisans of the USSR used to make, in the 1960s-70s. They claimed that GDP was meaningless, and that their production figures for heavy industry disproved the economic superiority of the west. Socialism was superior after all, on the basis of concrete, steel, coal, cotton, whatever.
It’s even more retro when one figures that most of the industries cited here in the case of China are state-owned.
Buwaya isn’t calling it a “paper tiger” - he just pointed out an article from the South China Morning Post (which is close to the mainland government) that it’s not so all-powerful as it portrays itself.
China is definitely an economic powerhouse - stronger than India, Japan and the UK. However it is not as strong as the USA or the EU.
This is not the 1950s where the USA was economically paramount. Those days are gone
But it is not going to be replaced by a mainland hegemony. It will be more the USA as first among 3 or 4 powerhouses.
You talked about 3 base levels - steel, concrete, electricity and one advanced level - cars.
China’s problem is innovation and “failing” - it’s the same in parts of the EU - in comparison to the USA. The USA innovates constantly - in China it is culturally difficult to do so, also innovation is boundaried.
Economically the USA needs to get used to the idea that it is JOINT king of the hill with 2 and soon to be 3 other co-kings.
“The world sees that and is moving towards China (and now Russia),” —> That is NOT happening.
Why?
Because Xi’s China is not trusted - forget about Russia under Putin.
China:
1. In Africa the honeymoon is well and truly over - African countries see China as exploitative and supporting authoritarian governments. Plus it is in competition with India for influence in economically dynamic East Africa
2. In the Middle East, they are seen as another customer.
3. In Central Asia they are seen as a biased trade partner, but one to be vary of
4. In South Asia, non-India countries saw it as a balance against India, but now, with the exception of Pakistan, they are disillusioned with Chinese actions (look at the way they bankrupted Sri Lanka)
5. In South-East Asia, they have no friends outside of Cambodia. Burma is wary of China but clings as everyone else condemns the junta. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,etc. all look with trepidation at China. the Philippines is a strange case and I’ve heard too many conflicting opinions from Filipinos to make any statement
6. In East Asia South Kora, Japan and Taiwan all want the mainland contained. Taiwan is a strange case as it is technically “The Republic of China” and it has irredentist claims on land now controlled by Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, India, Burma, Nepal etc.
7. In Europe - until Xi many countries were happy to “balance” the USA with China. But since Xi, no more.
In short, Xi has ruined the quiet rise of China - and made countries wary of China. Besides Cambodia, North Korea and some African countries, no one is “moving towards China”
Russia
Thanks to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, countries are moving away from Russia.
Even India which saw Russia as a “true friend” (read the Indian papers) - now see’s Putin’s actions as a threat (think Kashmir).
China see’s Russia as another northern barbarian confederation that is ripe to collapse and be restored as vassals of the Middle kingdom
South East Asia and South America don’t care one way or the other so no movement
European countries have all moved away from Russia - even Serbia. you might argue Belarus, but Lukashenko’s actions are pushing the Belarusyni away from Russia.
Africa seems a mixed bag - can’t say more as I haven’t spoken personally to any Africans about Russia
Putin has damaged Russia’s standing in the world with his actions in Ukraine - until that point in time countries would align with him, but no more
“This is exactly the argument partisans of the USSR used to make, in the 1960s-70s. They claimed that GDP was meaningless, and that their production figures for heavy industry disproved the economic superiority of the west. Socialism was superior after all, on the basis of concrete, steel, coal, cotton, whatever.”
That is a good point.
The USA leads in value-added to just pulling stuff out of the ground.
China is not bad in that respect *unlike Russia
India is getting better at value add
The UK and the EU countries lag behind the USA but slightly better than the rest
“I am overcome with the feeling that I’ve traveled back in time...This is exactly the argument partisans of the USSR used to make, in the 1960s-70s.”
No, it is NOT the same, but I do understand why you need to say it.
During the Cold War, and I had access to information that most here did not, we knew that production claims in a closed society, such as the USSR were TOTALLY SUSPECT, so we laughed at them.
The problem here is that the numbers are REAL - the stuff that China produces has taken over much, if not most, of huge sectors of the Western economies - not something that can happen if their products are crap, or if they’re lying about production numbers. They are buying REAL ENERGY products, like coal, from around the world and producing REAL ENERGY products like electricity...like it or not.
I realize that it’s difficult for Neocon Supporters to accept reality, in this case seeing China surpassing the US in numerous areas, but it DOES NOT change things one bit in the REAL WORLD.
“China’s problem is innovation and “failing” - it’s the same in parts of the EU - in comparison to the USA. The USA innovates constantly - in China it is culturally difficult to do so, also innovation is boundaried.”
Go do some research in US Patents for the past 10 years, you’ll see CHINESE NAMES on over half of them, close to two thirds.
So yes, we can maintain our prejudices about the funny-looking Chinese being unable to come up with anything, but those funny-looking Chinese are NOT playing along, at least anymore.
In re Filipinos - the populace is anti-Chinese on, often, a racial level. The PRC is widely disliked and intensely distrusted.
The Filipino elite however is of two minds. Or three. Or four.
On the one hand they hope for investment and riches. This has been an often disappointed hope. On the other they have a rational fear of China, and would rather not provoke it. On the third hand (yeah, the hands thing will only get you so far), they are cooperating as much as they can and as fast as they can with Japan, Korea and the US to upgrade armaments. And on the fourth hand....
There is great churn among elite factions in re China.
The Chinese are filing lots of international patents. This is deliberate state-supported Chinese policy to enable patent-filing. It doesnt mean that the Chinese are introducing products.
“It doesnt mean that the Chinese are introducing products.”
More OSTRICH thinking - they are the ones DOMINATING US Graduate Schools.
Why do you keep covering for them? Do you want them to DESTROY the US? Do you hate my country?
Since the production claims are generated by state enterprises and the buyer for the bulk of these things are state-supported enterprises, like real estate speculators or state projects, there is no certainty that these things are being made for economically rational reasons.
The USSR problem was that things would be done that were economically irrational. This amounted to destruction of value, the waste of material and labor for something nobody wanted. China has a huge overhead of exactly that, for instance unoccupied buildings, even whole cities. Given its population trajectory these will never be occupied. And who knows what else is being wasted. This is a burden on the Chinese people.
Your by-blow is an ocean of cheap steel that can be dumped abroad.
And these Chinese in US graduate schools mainly go on to live in the US.
https://communityliteracy.org/how-many-chinese-students-stay-in-the-us-after-graduation/
There is tremendous Chinese demand for emigration and capital flight.
“Since the production claims are generated by state enterprises and the buyer for the bulk of these things are state-supported enterprises, like real estate speculators or state projects, there is no certainty that these things are being made for economically rational reasons.”
I realize that Walmart is ONLY in certain countries, as is AutoZone (where 80% or so of their new replacement parts are from China), along with O’Reilly, and other chains. So, no, I don’t blame you for thinking that China is no different than the USSR, since you’re OBVIOUSLY not familiar with the US (but I sure as heck am = and the thing is, the Chinese replacement parts are damn good). During the Cold War, I NEVER bought a damn thing from the Soviet Union, or any other Warsaw Pact country - but I certainly buy A LOT of stuff from China these days.
Note: you cited steel, not umbrellas.
I’ve lived in the US for forty years, married an American, had children, put them through the University of California, and then retired to Spain. Yes I am very familiar with Chinese #%%#$ in US retail. This situation is global btw.
China is losing a lot of this however, as China is no longer the low cost producer of much of its former cheap crap.
Just one of many articles citing the exodus of light industry out of China. Your Walmart shelves probably have more stuff from Bangladesh and etc. than China these days.
China is highly dependent upon the US buying from them
And before that they were ENGLISH NAMES
The question is -- is Billy Chang a Chinese citizen or an American citizen?
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