Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
NYT ^ | 12/31/2022 | Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder

Posted on 12/31/2022 5:54:28 AM PST by semimojo

Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force.

Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points…

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 61-8081-100101-120121-135 next last
To: kosciusko51
He was not a candidate that would draw people to the polls. Just another elite carpetbagger with no real association to the rural voters. My guess is that the GOP lost in turnout with these voters.

My guess is that the g*dd@mn vote fraud that cost us Pennsylvania in 2020 is still costing us a Senate seat in 2022 because nobody has done anything to stop the vote fraud.

Fetterman was a horribly ugly weird retard who never held a job. If that's what Rural voters want, they are all also retards.

I don't believe that, so the more reasonable explanation is the same vote fraud that cost us Pennsylvania in 2020.

81 posted on 12/31/2022 11:09:09 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: nathanbedford
“Nobody ever shoots Santa Claus” - Al Smith.

Reagan and the supply siders found a way to play Santa Claus and steal the Dems thunder with tax cuts, but with our level of deficits and a huge share of the population no longer paying income tax that serving of dessert can’s be stomached either.

82 posted on 12/31/2022 11:11:11 AM PST by Clemenza
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 57 | View Replies]

To: Mr. Jeeves
While there remains some residual desire among the voting public to be left alone, too many just want government to make all of their problems go away - and hear conservative talk of personal responsibility as a horrible threat to their freedoms rather than as a necessary component to guarantee them.

We can attempt to dismantle the Democrat information infrastructure, but even when it is gone conservatives may find few new voters capable of receiving or understanding the messaging.

And there is some truth in this argument.

83 posted on 12/31/2022 11:11:50 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: kosciusko51
You are sure stuck on that idea. Your profile says Alabama. What makes you think you know about what Pennsylvanians think?

Fetterman was brain damaged. He was fat and ugly. He was a loser who never held a job.

Just how bad does a guy have to be before Rural Pennsylvanians think he is horrible?

84 posted on 12/31/2022 11:14:53 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

People will only get it when the country is staring into the abyss.


85 posted on 12/31/2022 11:15:31 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 83 | View Replies]

To: semimojo

The polling was actually under selling the red wave. The blue fraud was just bigger.


86 posted on 12/31/2022 11:16:24 AM PST by Revolutionary ("Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp
Let’s not forget the huge wave of ballots that came in before the debate - Oz didn’t work the early voting well.

Ultimately, it was the four suburban counties around Philly that came out heavily for Fetterman - turnout in Philly proper was actually down.

87 posted on 12/31/2022 11:16:59 AM PST by Clemenza
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 84 | View Replies]

To: Clemenza
Trump was indeed an outlier/fluke and let’s not forget he was beaten handily in the National vote total way outside any margin for “fraud.”

Let us stop repeating media lies. We people who have looked at the fraud in the various elections in the swing states know full well that it was *ONLY* fraud that created the illusion Biden won.

Here is a number for you. Trump got the largest vote total in the history of the United States. No other candidate, including Barack Obama ever got 74 million votes.

Those were real votes, not made up fake votes "ballot harvested" by Democrat activists or created by people in Fulton county Georgia running the same stack of ballots through the counting machine over and over again. (we have video of this.)

Just *STOP* repeating the news liars lies. Trump *WON* the election of 2020, and he won it massively.

Joe Biden did *NOT* beat Barack Obama's vote total in a national election by 12 million votes. It didn't happen in this or any other universe.

88 posted on 12/31/2022 11:19:43 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: nascarnation; kosciusko51
That’s why a native Democrat with a potato brain has the advantage over a Muslim from New Jersey.

The Muslim angle does a better job of explaining how Oz could lose an actual vote.

I still don't think that's the answer. We didn't do anything about vote fraud in 2020, so why should we expect 2022 to be different?

89 posted on 12/31/2022 11:21:58 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 61 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

I grew up in rural Pennsylvania, and I have many friends and family who still live there.


90 posted on 12/31/2022 11:25:06 AM PST by kosciusko51
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 84 | View Replies]

To: Clemenza
Reagan and the supply siders found a way to play Santa Claus and steal the Dems thunder with tax cuts,

In all my life, the only people i've ever seen complaining about Reagan's tax cuts have been on the other side. Reagan didn't control the congress. Tip O'Neil kept the spending party going, and trying to blame it on Reagan is just wrong.

Reagan's military build up ended the cold war. For the money spent, we got more benefit than anything the Democrats ever did.

Also, tax revenues went *UP* after the tax cuts. Not down.

91 posted on 12/31/2022 11:26:55 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 82 | View Replies]

To: dfwgator

I’m sorry to say you are very likely right about this.


92 posted on 12/31/2022 11:27:33 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

I’m not discounting voters fraud, but it is easier to manufacture extra votes when the GOP candidate is a turn off to the base.


93 posted on 12/31/2022 11:28:02 AM PST by kosciusko51
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 89 | View Replies]

To: Clemenza
Let’s not forget the huge wave of ballots that came in before the debate - Oz didn’t work the early voting well.

I believe there is a great deal of fraud in early voting, especially if people are just dropping off ballots already filled out.

How's the voter ID thing in Pennsylvania?

94 posted on 12/31/2022 11:30:03 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 87 | View Replies]

To: kosciusko51
I grew up in rural Pennsylvania, and I have many friends and family who still live there.

Fair enough. I will grant as to how you have your finger on the pulse of rural Pennsylvanians.

But I think the Muslim thing is probably the bigger impediment to Oz than the New Jersey thing.

And I still think Pennsylvania elections are riddled with fraud. We saw too many articles about it from 2020.

95 posted on 12/31/2022 11:32:26 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 90 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

There is some of corruption, but that’s dwarfed by the factors I mentioned.


96 posted on 12/31/2022 11:34:30 AM PST by ScottinVA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 76 | View Replies]

To: kosciusko51
I’m not discounting voters fraud, but it is easier to manufacture extra votes when the GOP candidate is a turn off to the base.

No argument. I agree.

I didn't like Oz either, and I think Trump messed up on this particular endorsement, but my God! how can anyone lose to Fetterman absent corruption?

97 posted on 12/31/2022 11:35:19 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 93 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

I think the Muslim factor was probably a serious impediment in Pennsylvania, but I still don’t see how anyone could lose to Fetterman in a clean election.


98 posted on 12/31/2022 11:36:52 AM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 96 | View Replies]

To: semimojo

The polls were accurate. The discrepancy is that elections are just rigged now.


99 posted on 12/31/2022 11:40:11 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

3) fraud


100 posted on 12/31/2022 11:40:57 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 61-8081-100101-120121-135 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson