A lot more primaries than in 1912. Also, different convention rules. They threw everything they had to stop him (at first I was a Cruz backer due to Trump’s lack of record, doubts about his new pro-life stance, and donations to lefties like Ted Kennedy. Performance Trumps all.)
Their best chance is if they get DeSantis to run and make it one on one, like Ford/Reagan in ‘76 (even then PA and NY were set up to ensure that Reagan would get none of those delegates, that is different now, and they have normal primaries too). There is so much hubris out there that a half-dozen Liz Cheney-types will run to make noise, get attention, consideration as VP pick, or just practice for ‘28 or ‘32.
Trump is mostly pro-Ethanol requirements, so he can’t be attacked in Iowa over that. An Establishment candidate might get some traction in New Hampshire, but not enough. Trump CRUSHES in South Carolina.
If Trump wants the nomination, he gets it. If he goes Bull Moose, he will need some buts and bolts guys to build a national party around it with candidates at all levels where necessary (leave Republican MAGAs alone). Personally, I don’t think that will work. The patience (that will have to outlast Trump) to keep getting more MAGA candidates until you have a plurality has to be stuck to. The Establishment will act entitled until they are gone. Their numbers are shrinking. Nearly all the Reps who voted for Impeachment are gone. Kinzinger and Cheney now have to yap from the sidelines and on MSNBC.
This strategy needs discipline, but I think it is a better play than abandoning the Republican Party to the Establishment.
Good post.
Few here dispute he can get renominated but only his most blindly devoted fanatics refuse to see he has done nothing to build a winning coalition with crossover voters. People will stay home or vote against his endorsements or proxies or himself. We say it in 2022. We cannot stop Biden/Harris in 2024 if Trump heads the ticket. He’s toxic and self sabotaging beyond comprehension. He could have fixed this after 2020 but he’s done everything to make himself unelectable, harm the movement and the party. He’s unhinged and unfocused. It’s too late for a Trump 2nd term. We need to MOVE ON if we’re going to fix the direction of this country. I am deeply skeptical of DeSantis and even more so with the media hyping him.