Putin knows Ukraine is getting limited support from NATO. Older weapon systems in limited quantities. No tanks, no aircraft, etc. Putin has seen his army beaten in Ukraine by poorly armed Ukrainian farmers and certainly doesn’t it want to face the force of NATO. Putin is counting on a fifth column in the west undermining opposition to Russia’s mass murder and genocide in Ukraine. He knows that’s the only way he can achieve his policy goals now.
Russia augmented its proxy forces in Ukraine with 160,000 soldiers, 70,000 of which were combat troops. Between 2014 - 2022, the USA completely trained up the Ukrainian army and built massive lines of defensive fortifications. The Russians underestimated the amounts of weapons and intelligence the US (or NATO if you will) supplied. Now under an unified commander, Russia has pulled back to easily defended lines and opted to pound the Ukrainian army with artillery day in and day out. The ground has now frozen and Russia has launched the winter offensive (War). There are onver 700,000 troops designated for this operation and over 300,000 combat troops. The Donbas is going to be in Russian hands by the weekend as Ukraine’s 93d Bde is pulling out of Bathmut(sp). These troops are trying to retreat to defensive lines far to the east. Most of the Ukraine’s regular army has been either wasted in counter attacks since Oct, or pounded by artillery and both countries have stated 1000 casualties of Ukrainian soldiers daily for several months on end. Ukraine is in no positon (pun) or any condition to repell this new Russian initiative. There is sparse reporting coming from the front(s). I would speculate that Russia takes Donbas, the areas contested in the North and in the South Odessa. Reports that Russian SF cut Ukraine’s communications at the onset of this attack in the rear areas. Most of the Odessa area is without electric and water, as is a large percerntage of the rest of the population. Between cutting the electric, fuel, rail and resultant suffering of the population, the EU will be faced with mass evacuations which they have a moral responsibility to accept given their part in using the Minsk Agreement as cover to arm, train and build defensive positons in Ukraine.