Replies

If defeat results in the dissolution of the Russian federation into dozens of independent states, that would be a salutary result. Ukraine will have done the world a great service by indirectly breaking up one of the last great despotic empires.

The problem is the fragmentation of Russia's nukes. That was the issue when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia would not have ever invaded Ukraine if it had kept some nukes.

“The problem is the fragmentation of Russia’s nukes. That was the issue when the Soviet Union collapsed.”

Wasn’t much of an issue actually, since Moscow retains command and control of all the nukes. Without the launch codes, all the constituent states might be able to do is disassemble their nukes to sell the fissile materials within, or maybe make a few dirty bombs.

Ukraine ping

Dr. Franklin: [The problem is the fragmentation of Russia’s nukes. That was the issue when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia would not have ever invaded Ukraine if it had kept some nukes. ]

With the right blandishments, they’ll come around. After all, we did supply Ukraine with significant funding to ward off a Russian invasion and kneecap Russia with significant sanctions.

And nukes are useless against conventional invasion by a nuclear state. If they call your bluff and invade, what are you gonna do - nuke them and get vaporized in return?

After Ukraine’s experience, I expect these new states will want a structured path to NATO membership rather than some nebulous Budapest-like document. And that is probably a good idea, given the threat of Chinese encroachment. The key is requiring good government reforms just like those already completed in the former Warsaw Pact states that are now NATO members.

Ukraine’s traumatic experience will remind these new nations that even if you don’t get overrun completely, your cities can be set on fire and your people beset by the daily possibility of random death. Better to set aside a good chunk of the government budget to forestall that possibility.