[Boogieman]

“The problem is the fragmentation of Russia’s nukes. That was the issue when the Soviet Union collapsed.”

Wasn’t much of an issue actually, since Moscow retains command and control of all the nukes. Without the launch codes, all the constituent states might be able to do is disassemble their nukes to sell the fissile materials within, or maybe make a few dirty bombs.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

Boogieman: [Wasn’t much of an issue actually, since Moscow retains command and control of all the nukes. Without the launch codes, all the constituent states might be able to do is disassemble their nukes to sell the fissile materials within, or maybe make a few dirty bombs.]

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Many of them should have people with the expertise to rejigger these things to work for them. But keeping these things functional is a huge cost in itself. You also have maintain a significant conventional force necessary just in case your bluff fails. And a bluff it is, because if you launch a nuclear first strike against a nuclear-armed opponent, you have voted for physical extinction which, unlike foreign occupation, is irreversible.