1. The “optimistic demographic projections” you describe are an issue in all defined-benefit retirement plans (even Social Security). Simply put, people are living far longer today that they were when they started contributing to the pension plans.
2. For the Teamsters, the demographic issue has been exacerbated by declining membership in the union over time — even as trucking jobs have grown considerably. Much of this is due to the deregulation of the industry in the early 1980s that changed the trucking business dramatically.
Other than longevity issue, the things should have been fully funded up front. Deferred finding just kicks the can down the road. Hoping for more members would also mean more funding.
Using future members to find existing liabilities is, by definition, a Ponzi scheme.
It’s really the members that are already retired that are the problem. They simply do not have the money or the current active membership to fund 100% of their commitment to them. Without the windfall from the taxpayer their benefit would be cut 60%. The way to resolve this going forward is to tell unions the Pension Benefit guaranty will not guarantee defined benefit pensions going forward, only defined contribution plans. When they negotiate new contracts they will have to negotiate them on the basis of the company funding a defined 401 K contribution plan. The investment risk is then with the Union member not the US taxpayer