Posted on 11/24/2022 9:17:29 AM PST by marcusmaximus
I read through this thread and came away with one general impression. Your comments remind me of one of the little mean girls in a high school clique going around saying “nobody likes her”. Is that who you are?🤷♂️
LMAO
I wonder who isn’t going to have friends to play with at
recess.
Said the little snide girl two grades back.
Is that who you are?
That was pretty catty.
Russia expert Gordon M. Hahn looks at the upcoming Russian Winter Offensive. Only with a ceasefire can Ukraine and its sponsors avert the upcoming catastrophe. This for three reasons:
First, the Russian hammer is about to fall on Ukraine. The gloves are coming off; electric energy stations, bridges, and even ‘decision centers’ such as central Kiev’s government buildings are being targeted. ... What will the sociopolitical situation be like when these critical infrastructures are in complete collapse and temperatures are 20 degrees colder? Russia will be moving closer to the strategy of ‘shock and awe’, fully destroying all infrastructure – military or otherwise – as the US did in Serbia and Iraq and will likely take less care now to avoid civilian casualties.
After the infrastructures are completely destroyed or incapacitated, Russia’s reinforcements of 380,000 regular and newly mobilized troops will have been fully added into Russia’s forces across southeastern Ukraine. ... A winter offensive by some half a million troops will make substantial gains on those three fronts and multiply Ukrainian losses in personnel and materiel`, which are already high. This could lead easily to a collapse of Ukrainian forces on one or more front. On the backs of such a success Russian President Putin might also make another attempt to threaten Kiev ...
Second, the West is suffering from Ukraine fatigue. NATO countries’ arms supplies have been depleted beyond what is tolerable, and social cohesion is collapsing in the face of double-digit inflation and economic recession. All this makes Russia the winner on the strategic level and is forcing Washington and Brussels to seek at least a breathing spell by way of a ceasefire.
... Third, Ukraine’s greatest political asset – Zelenskiy himself – just got devalued, putting at even greater risk Ukraine’s political stability. ... For now, in order to keep the West on board, Zelenskiy is rumored to be pushing Ukrainian armed forces commander Viktor Zalyuzhniy to start a last pre-winter offensive in northern Donetsk (Svatovo and Severodonetsk) or Zaporozhe in order to put a stop to the West’s ceasefire murmurs and reboost support. At the same time there is talk of continuing Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy tensions over the latter’s good press and star status in the West. ... On the background of the deteriorating battlefield and international strategic situation, such civil-military tensions are fraught with the potential for a coup. ...
... We may be reaching the watershed moment in the Ukrainian war. No electricity, no army, no society.
When Armenia was attacked by Azerbaijan, Russia stood at arm’s length and did not defend them. Granted, Russia was trying to thread the needle between the two. But it’s not surprising that Armenia is not so enthusiastic about supporting Russia now.
Maybe because Ukraine used to be invited to these events too?
No kidding.
Armenia was accepted to ODKB not by Putin but by Boris ELtsin. So she may leave it at any time. None want to fight for her anyways.
When Armenia was attacked by Azerbaijan, Russia stood at arm’s length and did not defend them. ===
There are 10 mils of Armenians in this world. But only 1.5 mlns live in Armenia. And they didn’t come to their motherland to defend her or live there.
Russia may HELP to defend Armenia but will not defend her if Armenians themselves not doing that. Russians are NOT Armenians and they don’t care about her if Armenians don’t care.
Armenians must come up to defend their land not Russians. Russia may provide weaponry for that and some instructors. But again Russians may NOT be more Armenians than Armenians themselves.
Russians are not Armenians and vice versa. Though there are close and longstanding ties between them. I think a lot of Armenians are Russian speakers, a lot have dual citizenship. Russia maintains an important base there, and Armenia looks to Russia to defend them from the Turks, Iran, and Azerbaijan.
But they had lately been flirting with the west, which annoyed Putin. And Russia has interests in Azerbaijan, which though it’s not a CSTO member, it is a major oil producer. So Armenia found itself hung out to dry when the Azeris attacked.
No real surprise. But conversely, no real surprise that Armenia returns the favor, standing at arm’s length from Russia now that they are looking for support from their friends.
In the end, Armenia has no choice but to depend on Russia for its defense and even its economy. But they are not happy, and they were making a point.
Russia maintains an important base there, and Armenia looks to Russia to defend them from the Turks, Iran, and Azerbaijan.===
This base was important to Soviet Union. Russia just inherited it and would close it already but Armenia wanted to keep it.
Russia is not USSSR so she will not defend Armenia but only may help them to defend themselves. Russians can’t fight for Armenia if Armenians won’t.
In the end, Armenia has no choice but to depend on Russia for its defense and even its economy. But they are not happy, and they were making a point.==
They not happy and Russia isn’t too. SO better for everyone to cancel such relationship which bothers both.
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