I think that the SOS website is wrong about % precincts reporting. Going to be a huge amount of votes coming in today
If you drill down on the site it gives actual numbers of precincts outstanding per county.
tldr;
Lake and Masters both win, unless ballots are destroyed or swapped. Hobbs says 11 days to finish the vote count.
Expected 697,400 votes left to count. In Arizona, there were huge lines in yesterday vote, so more than 700,000 voters dropped off their ballots on election day. The voting tabulators were broken, out of ink, out of paper, etc.
In completely unrelated news, the Arizona Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs (D), said the vote was completely successful.
Current totals:
Dem Katie Hobbs: 902,521
Rep Kari Lake: 890,795
Difference: 11,726
(note - some people did not vote for governor)
Remaining votes: 697,400
Remaining early votes: 55,000
Remaining day of election votes: 642,400
Expected split remaining votes:
Hobbs: 28% * 697,400 = 195,272
Lake: 72% * 697,400 = 502,128
Expected final totals:
Dem Katie Hobbs: 902,521 + 195,272 = 1,097,793 = 44.04%
Rep Kari Lake: 890,795 + 502,128 = 1,392,923 = 55.96%
Total votes = 2,490,716
Senator:
Mark Kelly (D) 926,885
Blake Masters (R) 836,916
Difference: 89,969
Total vote so far = 1,763,801
Total governor vote so far = 1,793,316
Ratio: .9835
Remaining votes: 697,400 * .9835 = 685,893
Kelly: .304 * 685,893 = 208,511
Masters: .696 * 685,893 = 477,382
Final votes (projected)
Mark Kelly (D) 926,885 + 208,511 = 1,135,396 = 46.35%
Blake Masters (R) 836,916 + 477,382 = 1,314,298 = 53.65%
Total votes: 2,449,694