Hispanic is a label that adds massive confusion.
Cuban-Americans are one voting group.
Some Hispanic groups like Dominicans and Puerto Ricans have ah “rivalries”. :-)
Central America and South America have many different countries and folks from there have a wide variety of political opinions.
Adding to the chaos is that first generation, second generation and third generation immigrants have very different voting patterns.
Polling that fails to drill down is useless.
You are 100% on the nose in your analysis. FWIW my wife’s aunt and Uncle from PR are voting for Oz but I still believe that stateside PRs will continue to be loyal to the Dems for a variety of reasons that I can better tell all of you in conversation rather than via a post.