It used to be said that if a Senate incumbent wasn’t at 50%, they were going to lose, but I haven’t heard that in about 15 years. Is tat still the case?
I think so.
that’s always the case with any incumbent, but you are right that for some reason you don’t hear it much more.
That’s never really been the case. More like if they are 46% or less, assuming their opponent isn’t like at 35% or something. 48-49 is way too close to 50%. Most undecideds could break against them and they could still win.