[NeoCaveman]

It used to be said that if a Senate incumbent wasn’t at 50%, they were going to lose, but I haven’t heard that in about 15 years. Is tat still the case?

I think so.

[spintreebob]

As Claire McKaskill said today: I won when the polls said I would lose. I lost when the polls said I would win.

Polling is inexact. It has a lot larger margin of error than some would like to admit.