Posted on 10/31/2022 8:52:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
After all of the talk about sticking it out in Ukraine for as long as it takes and Mad Vlad threatening to unleash some nukes, could Russia actually be ready to negotiate with Zelensky and the west to seek an end to the invasion of Ukraine? We probably shouldn’t get our hopes up too high just yet, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled that there might be an offer on the table over the weekend. Considering how bombastic Lavrov generally is, this would indicate a serious change in his attitude if it turns out to be more than just random propaganda. But, as always, he wasn’t suggesting any sort of complete surrender or even withdrawal without concessions. Russia would only be willing to engage in such a discussion if “the West meets certain conditions.” (Newsweek)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled the Kremlin could be ready to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war so long as the West meets certain conditions.
Lavrov’s remarks come more than eight months after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24. Although Moscow initially hoped for a quick victory, the invasion has revealed weaknesses in their military that blunted the Kremlin’s gains. Furthermore, Ukraine received support from the West, bolstering defense efforts and allowing its military to launch a strong counteroffensives to reclaim occupied territory.
As fighting rages on, negotiations between the two Eastern European nations have stalled. Ukraine, which has seen surprising success, has suggested its military would keep fighting until Russia is completely ousted from its territory. Meanwhile, Russia has signaled little interest in ending the war, despite facing mounting losses.
So what are these “conditions” that Lavrov wants to see being offered? We’re not going to get much help from him there because he seemed to be deliberately vague on the subject. He claimed that Russia is “always ready to listen to our Western colleagues” if there is a desire to engage in new talks.
The first condition Lavrov was willing to suggest was that the West would need to “fully take into account the interests of the Russian Federation and its security.” But that could mean practically anything. Putin has spoken repeatedly about the need for NATO to not expand further to the east, describing that as a “threat to Russian security.” Perhaps he’s back to harping on a promise that Ukraine wouldn’t be invited to join?
Lavrov’s second condition was a suggestion that the West would need to “offer us some serious approaches that will help defuse tensions.” Again, that’s an almost entirely meaningless phrase. He didn’t specify anything we could do that would defuse tensions. Some analysts are already speculating that he’s talking about dropping some or all of the economic sanctions against Russia and having Ukraine agree to remain neutral throughout and beyond the negotiations.
But the demands from NATO’s side of the table have been consistent in that regard. They’re not going to talk about dropping sanctions unless Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine and the borders are returned to where they were before the invasion. The Russians haven’t even suggested any sort of full withdrawal at this point.
It would be nice to see this all come to an end, but I frankly don’t see Lavrov’s comments as anything more than window dressing at this point. There’s a fair chance that he was simply attempting to paint a reasonable face on the Kremlin’s position. Putin is still fuming about the United States and the rest of NATO giving Ukraine advanced weapons systems and pushing them out of some of their occupied territory. So as I mentioned at the top, don’t hold your breath for any sort of a breakthrough before Thanksgiving.
Why is NATO at the table at all?
Hope so. If there’s anything to this, those two countries should do as much discussion and deciding as is diplomatically possible. Do not rely on the USA under Joe Biden and his team of dysfunctional puppeteers.
The war will end.
RE: Russia gets to keep Crimea. Ukraine pledges to remain neutral. Russia withdraws troops from occupied territories of Ukraine (not Crimea).
So, what happens to the Donbas regions?
What you’re describing is essentially the status quo BEFORE Russia invaded last February.
Good question.
If this war were to end tomorrow, the stock market would explode. What stock would you buy?
that would be what they all agreed upon in 2014 and signed documents.
I'd be leaning toward Twitter at the moment...
I don't see this as much progress except that a willingness to talk is inherently progress of a sort. But clearly Russia wants to (1) keep the Donbass region, and (2) keep Crimea as well. Ukraine wants to retain the former and recover the latter. Unless one side or the other is willing to settle for one and release the other to the opposition I don't see much of a compromise possible, and of course in the view of supporters of both sides, no such compromise is morally justifiable in any case. Ergo an impasse that is going to be difficult to resolve. For now.
bump for later
Just peace =
1) Return to the pre-invasion borders,
2) Russia pays reparations,
3) Ukraine commits to never join EU or NATO.
Actually that’s what Russia’s been saying all along.....Zelensky says no he won’t talk.
This was presnted by Russia in March....
.....”if Ukraine agreed to sign a neutrality agreement that would bar it from entering NATO, recognized Crimea as Russian, recognized the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent, and ceased all military action”.......
As Russia's circumstances and prospects continue to deteriorate, the terms will get better and at some point a deal might be made. That will likely not be the case, but talks of any sort will provide a better understanding of Putin's frame of mind and intentions. And that is what Putin hopes to learn about the US and NATO.
RE: If this war were to end tomorrow, the stock market would explode. What stock would you buy?
I made profits on Energy and Agriculture stocks when Russia invaded. I would put a trailing stop on these stocks that I own as the run-up came as a result of the war.
I believe that Travel stocks could benefit from a cease-fire that reopens air and sea travel routes blocked by the conflict.
Lol. I think you're kind of late for that train...
As of now the best that could be hoped for is a cease fire and hold present positions.
And even that is remote.
This earned him a death threat from the Ukrainians.
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