4%??? more like 40%
Having been in the media and advertising industries for quite some time, the answer is an easy one, and everyone should realize it.
The media LOVES political advertising because all the money has to be paid up front. In the interest of keeping this gravy train a'rollin', the media will ALWAYS make the race look close, even if it actually isn't, to keep both sides buying airtime.
It's a racket that's been going on a long, long time.