Those using 1994, 2010 or 2014 (all glorious midterms for the GOP) as models — especially TURNOUT models — for 2022, are living foolishly in the too-distant past.
The massively increased early voting, drop boxes, mail-in voting, etc. which exists today makes those good old days totally irrelevant. And then there’s the massively increased fraud which goes with all that, which hasn’t been addressed nearly enough in critical places (but, but muh 2021 elections in Virginia!!!).
The correct midterm turnout model for 2022 is 2018, and not 1994, 2010 or 2014. Increased turnout results in an increased number of uninformed, ignorant, easily emotionally manipulated idiots casting ballots — and that obviously heavily favors Democrats just like it did in 2018 and 2020 no matter how much we talk about “broken glass Republicans”, “enthusiasm gaps” favoring Republicans (like the experts assured us would occur in 2020, then it didn’t happen).
But hey, if we win ALL the close ones....!
Governor:
R->D flips: Maryland and Massachusetts for sure. Oklahoma of all places is looking much worse than expected. Arizona would be great for Kari Lake hold but that outcome is far from certain. Katie’s people count the votes.
D->R flips: Oregon maybe, Wisconsin and Nevada possibly, there’s supposedly a good chance in Kansas. Pipe dream flips (as in “put down the crack pipe”): Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico, Colorado, New York, Pennsylvania. It would take a 1994-style landslide for much, if any, of that to happen.
Senator:
Maybe we hold PA, but don’t bet the farm on it. Best (only real) pickup chances: Georgia and Nevada. Keep dreaming: Arizona, Colorado, Washington, New Hampshire. Tossups in North Carolina, Wisconsin. If things go REALLY bad then one or more of Iowa, Ohio and Utah are in play. Bonus: if Tshibaka can beat Murkowski in Alaska that’s as good as a pickup from a Democrat.
State Houses: Democrat gerrymanders could easily give the Rats full control in Minnesota and Michigan. PA House is a tossup at best in 2022 with the GOP poised to lose about a dozen seats and therefore lose control. Republicans will make pickups in seats in many state legislatures which they already control. What state Houses or Senates are realistically likely to flip the right way? Any?
Watch and be amazed, because states you are not even considering are in play, which makes others a sure win.
I think this years will be better than either 94 or 2010,
f the governor of Connecticut is worried, and Nike founder Knight is backing an independent instead of the Democrat in Oregon, than things are not going to go well for the “D”s in states many are not even thinking of.
The Republicans won the MN legislature last election, and they are poised to increase their majority.
Like I said, there are going to be many who are shocked on both sides of the isle.
Republicans big,